Xiamen Airlines

Xiamen Airlines, China's fourth largest domestic airline, aims to surpass 20m pax in 2013

Privately-owned carrier Xiamen Airlines has regained its position as China's fourth largest airline after a drop in capacity in 2H2012 and early 2013 when measured on available domestic and seat capacity and frequency. This places Xiamen as the world's 27th largest airline by seat capacity – larger than perhaps better-known carriers including KLM, Korean Air and Cathay Pacific. While those carriers eclipse Xiamen when weighing available seat kilometres, Xiamen as the 51st largest on ASKs is still larger than Air New Zealand, Finnair or Vueling.

This strong domestic carrier – 94% of seat capacity is within mainland China – will accelerate growth of its small international footprint by adding services around Southeast Asia following its ascension to SkyTeam in late 2012. But the domestic Chinese market remains its focus, and Xiamen will use many of the 15 737-800s it is receiving this year to grow its presence around its namesake home of Xiamen. Despite the name connection, Xiamen Airlines has more capacity outside of Xiamen than it does to or from the city. In 2013 Xiamen Airlines aims to break the 20 million threshold for annual passengers carrier, and also carry over 200,000 tons of cargo and mail.

Air China builds its N American network while Hainan Air to use A330 instead of 787 to Chicago

The North American market continues to outperform for Chinese airlines, a result of high demand and more limited competition than on European routes. In addition to Air China's forthcoming Beijing-Houston service, the carrier will add another four weekly services to New York JFK. A decade ago Air China had only a three times weekly Beijing-New York service, reflecting the rise of China as both a country and aviation market.

Air China's 2013 capacity to North America will be 183% greater than in 2003 and is quickly closing in on United Airlines' position as the largest carrier between North America and China.

In China it is not just the flagship and government-preferred Air China looking to expand. Hainan Airlines last year announced a Beijing-Chicago service to start in Mar-2013 with Boeing 787s. Following delayed Chinese certification of the 787 – which was stalling well before the aircraft's Jan-2013 grounding – Hainan has pushed the launch back to Sep-2013 and plans, for now, to operate the service with A330-200s.

The route marks the first high-profile long-haul route for Hainan Airlines, which has faced route restrictions as the government seeks to protect incumbents.

Chinese carriers in for the long haul but face stumbling blocks along the way

There is no doubt that Chinese carriers will be a force to be reckoned with. They are working with the world’s largest population and when travel propensity increases this will quickly make China the biggest market; they have the potential to maintain a low cost base; and they have favourable geography – through hubs in each corner of the country they will be able to route traffic efficiently, their sixth-freedom operations posing a threat to existing hubs in Asia and the Middle East. Realising all of this remains a question of when, how and with whom.

Long-haul aircraft deliveries are scheduled to pick up around the middle of the decade and ensure expansion (the short-term deliveries are mostly single-aisle equipment). The key will be to ensure profitable expansion. Service delivery and international marketing still lags noticeably. Functional non-Chinese-language websites can be a novelty.

The following is an extract from the special China edition of Airline Leader, CAPA’s management journal for CEOs. Click on the side panel on this page to obtain full access to the soft copy.

SkyTeam's Greater China airline members to form regional alliance in high-yielding market

A proposed regional alliance amongst SkyTeam's Greater China members – Taiwan's China Airlines, China Eastern, China Southern and Xiamen Airlines – may appear to be a niche strategic move in the small but highly profitable and expanding Taiwan-mainland China market.

Yet the alliance is also indicative of the growing trend for North Asian airlines to combine their strengths against imposing competitors, namely Air China and Cathay Pacific.

The alliance would account for about half of the capacity between China and Taiwan, a valuable market which is continuously expanding under tight control and route delegation. Its share on certain key business routes, like Taipei-Shanghai, would be even higher. Further airline strength and capacity will pressure Hong Kong-based carriers, which once had a healthy business of carrying passengers between China and Taiwan via their hub.

Aviation changes in China: an airline and airport review Part 2

The good news for foreign airlines is that Chinese carriers, independently and with guidance from regulator CAAC, will want to expand partnerships and seek closer ties in existing arrangements.

The downside is the typical difficulty in aligning with the Chinese airline nuances: their inexperience with open markets; ambiguity about larger political events that could influence alliances; deeper mistrust if a partner’s partner is a competitor, no matter to what degree; and service on the ground and in the air that is improving, but still lags significantly.

This extract is Part 2 of a detailed review of China's aviation outlook contained in the October-November issue of Airline Leader, CAPA's journal for aviation CEOs. To receive your personalised e-copy of Airline Leader, sign up by clicking the panel on this page.

After Xiamen and Shenzhen Airlines join SkyTeam and Star, where next for global alliances in China?

Almost two-thirds of China's domestic airline capacity is now aligned to global marketing alliances following Xiamen Airlines and Shenzhen Airlines' respective entry into SkyTeam and Star Alliance in late Nov-2012. SkyTeam remains the largest alliance in China with 44% of the market while Star has 20% and oneworld no members. While only one-fifth of Chinese carriers are a member now of a global alliance, the majority of the remaining carriers are affiliated with one of China's big four airlines: Air China, China Eastern, China Southern and Hainan Airlines. None are pending members to join an alliance.

Should smaller unaligned carriers choose to enter a global alliance, they will likely follow their parent company, as Xiamen and Shenzhen did: Xiamen is partially owned by SkyTeam's China Southern, and Shenzhen by Star's Air China. Based on current capacity and ownership ties, SkyTeam could claim upwards of 50% of the domestic market and Star 26%.

But the smaller carriers are growing rapidly and new airlines are forming. Plus, Hainan Airlines parent HNA, with 15% of the total market, is unaligned but with eyes on oneworld, which has no domestic members but is very itchy for them. The match may seem perfect but is contentious. If it occurs, the membership will be momentous – possibly even more so than Qatar Airways joining oneworld.