China Southern Airlines

Hainan Airlines' first 787s go to Chicago, Seattle & Toronto but Air China gets Beijing's key routes

Originally due to arrive in China in time for the country's 2008 Beijing Olympics, the 787 even missed the 2012 London Olympics. Once the aircraft were finally ready in 2012, Chinese certification lagged and then the 787's battery-induced grounding put a further hold on delivery. But now in sight is an end to the saga and start of commercial service of the 787 in China.

Three operators hold 35 orders: China Southern for 10 787-8s, Hainan Airlines for 10 787-8s as well and Air China for 15 787-9s. Xiamen Airlines has a pending order for six 787-8s. China Southern is due to be the first carrier to take delivery and Hainan the second, but Hainan was first to announce deployment plans, which include domestic services and long-haul flights to Chicago, Seattle and Toronto.

But, as a less privileged, private airline, Hainan Airlines could be constrained by its own government on which routes it can use the full 787 fleet, as the airline faces route restrictions out of Beijing, its main long-haul base – as China Southern painfully experienced when it sought to fly from the capital with its A380.

High-speed rail in southern China could challenge Dragonair, but only under combination of factors

The convergence of China’s domestic high-speed rail as well as high-speed rail linking mainland China with Hong Kong could potentially undermine Dragonair’s southern China network, a possibility the carrier is increasingly beginning to consider.

With HSR not due to link Hong Kong until 2015, there is time for this scenario to evolve.

Any impact to Dragonair and other carriers would have to occur with an alignment of factors. Currently at least this seems more unlikely than likely: low HSR ticket prices, convenient station locations, maximum train speeds and integrated border control.

There is also the possibility Dragonair and other carriers could swap routes for others as Hong Kong Airport slots become more scarce.

The A380 becomes mainstream, with 103 now in service: which airlines, destinations, stage lengths?

There are 103 A380s in service as of early May-2013. Emirates has 33 and Singapore Airlines has 19, so when assessing network scheduling, these two and their hubs predominate: of the 1,048 weekly A380 flights, 402 are from Emirates alone. Dubai and Singapore airport see the most A380 flights.

But there are some less predictable statistics. The airport to see the most A380 operators is Hong Kong followed by Paris and Los Angeles. The largest A380 destination that is not (yet) an A380-hub is London Heathrow. The UK and USA are the most common A380 destinations after Australia, Singapore and the UAE. Asia, not the Middle East, sees the most A380 flights; South America sees none. Guangzhou-Shanghai Pudong is the shortest A380 route at 1,202km while Los Angeles-Melbourne is the longest at 12,751km. Qantas and Lufthansa have the highest average sector length while Thai Airways is placing the most number of cycles – about two – on its aircraft per day. Qantas and Air France are placing the least (just over one).

China airport wrap: Beijing still not #1 while western China airports lead double-digit growth

A slowdown in Chinese traffic at the end of 2012 resulting from decreased activity in line with the government’s leadership transition saw Beijing Capital Airport miss a widely-held projection that it would overtake Atlanta Hartsfield airport for the title of world’s largest passenger airport. Beijing remained in the #2 spot after breathtaking growth that saw it enter the world’s 10 largest airports only in 2006.

Growth at Beijing and other major Chinese airports will slow as slots become increasingly difficult to secure. The highest growth amongst major Chinese airports is occurring in China’s west and northeast regions, home to airports including Chongqing, Shenyang and Urumqi.

They are a fraction of the size of Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, which account for 31% of passenger movements, but will increasingly garner international attention.

Harbin Airport seeks a hub role for Russia and Siberia, but home airlines are less interested

Siberia-China seat capacity grew 202% between 2003 and 2012 and China's northern City of Harbin is now jockeying to become a network hub for Siberia. The airport accounts for 15% of Siberia-China capacity, far less than the largest Chinese airport, Beijing, 1000km to its southeast. Harbin offers geographical advantages to Siberian cities in the far east while Beijing can serve those with some circuitry as well as western Siberian cities. Urumqi in China's far west could also be a hub for Siberia, supporting China Southern's development of Urumqi as a West Asia/CIS hub. 

The motivation is simple. Siberia's 40 million population has proven an increasingly important trade relationship for China – so much so that in the economic turmoil of 2009, Siberia was the only part of Russia to maintain a positive investment trend. China is tapping Siberia for resources ranging from wood to oil and, increasingly, hydroelectricity from Siberia's numerous rivers. Russia's largest private energy company forecasts Siberia's GDP could triple in 15 years.

China Southern Airlines A380 to Sydney - Part 2: competitors to feel more pricing pressure

This is the second part of a report on China Southern's A380 deployment to Sydney, a move that will gain public interest from the angle of a previously obscure carrier bringing in the world's largest aircraft to one of the world's most iconic cities. While the capacity increase is large at 41%, the 1,554 additional weekly seats have been put in by or been exceeded by other carriers serving Sydney in recent times.

What makes China Southern's A380 deployment to Sydney notable – and worrisome – is not the sheer number of seats but the low yields they will be priced at. China Southern is offering return economy tickets from Australia to Europe during the European summer – before the A380's entry and capacity increase – for as low as AUD1,102 (USD1,143), half the price of typical fares only two years ago. Business class fares have seen similar percentage cuts over the last two years, with return business class to Europe for AUD5,819 (USD6,034).