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- 10 Arbat St
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Established in 1923, Public Joint Stock Company Aeroflot — Russian Airlines (Aeroflot PJSC) is Russia's largest national carrier and is part of the Aeroflot Group, a state-owned enterprise of the Russian Government. The carrier operates domestic and international passenger services, mainly from its hub at Moscow Sheremetyevo International Airport. As a full member of SkyTeam, Aeroflot operates to 1,052 destinations in 177 countries via the SkyTeam alliance network. The carrier was the first Russian airline company to join IATA, in 1989.
Location of Aeroflot main hub (Moscow Sheremetyevo Airport)
Aeroflot share price
3,032 total articles
69 total articles
Part 1 of this report on Aeroflot's connecting sixth freedom traffic noted that Aeroflot is the 13th largest carrier of passengers between Western Europe and Northeast Asia, whereas Finnair – whose "Nordic Shortcut" strategy is well-known – is slightly larger and is the 10th largest operator. After Emirates, Aeroflot is the largest airline flying passengers between the regions but is not based in either of them; all the other operators are Western European or Northeast Asian airlines.
This second and final part examines Aeroflot's growing connecting market in depth. Of the airline's connecting Western Europe-Northeast Asian passengers, 54% are travelling to/from mainland China. This correlates with the share of Aeroflot capacity allocated to China. Among Finnair, Turkish and the Gulf 3 "superconnectors", Aeroflot has the fewest destinations in Northeast Asia. Yet its frequency in prime Chinese cities is unmatched. Aeroflot has the benefit of good aeropolitical relations with China while benefitting from other airlines being restricted over Chinese airspace. This may appear to be a short term advantage that will reduce as competition grows.
Yet a review of the city pairs where Aeroflot is the strongest on transfer traffic indicates growth opportunities as more markets are incorporated into JVs and complacency settles in. This may increase already tense relations between Aeroflot and its SkyTeam partners. Pursuing stronger transfer traffic will be a delicate decision for Aeroflot management.
The Western Europe-North East Asia corridor has gained attention as the centrepiece of Finnair's expansion strategy. But just over 500 miles away in Moscow Aeroflot is quietly pursuing a role carrying transfer traffic between the regions. Although Aeroflot's spread of Asian destinations is not as extensive as Finnair's or those of the Gulf airlines, Aeroflot has favourable geography and lower costs. It is not subject to Russian overflight rights and associated costs. Finnair carries the tenth largest number of O&D passengers between Western Europe and Northeast Asia, while Aeroflot is 13th. After Emirates, Aeroflot is the second largest airline transporting passengers between the regions, but is based in neither.
A member of SkyTeam, Aeroflot is not part of the joint ventures (trans-Atlantic and Europe-Asia) that define the alliance's inner circle. Its long haul transfer strategy is focused on Western Europe-Asia. This strategy allows it some independence from SkyTeam but may also aggravate the alliance's established members, much the way that Turkish has irked Lufthansa and United. Aeroflot's connecting traffic, although still an overall small proportion of its international traffic, has grown faster than local traffic.
Part one of this report on European airline market structure and consolidation highlighted that the top twenty airline groups in Europe hold 75% of seats. This is the same share as the top six groups in North America. This equivalence, in market share terms, between Europe's top 20 and North America's top six underlines the huge gap in consolidation progress between the two regions' airlines. It would take a large number of merger and acquisition deals to recreate North America's market structure in Europe, consolidating 20 into six.
This second part of the report is a kind of fantasy, a hypothetical. It suggests an illustrative series of combinations among Europe's top 20 that would approximately replicate the market shares, in terms of seat share, held by North America's top six.
This would require large merger and acquisition transactions involving pairings between members of Europe's smaller top six of Lufthansa Group, IAG, Ryanair, Air France-KLM, Turkish Airlines and easyJet. It would also mean several deals involving second-tier FSCs and LCCs. However, for now the larger deals in Europe remain relatively unlikely, and there are even hurdles to the smaller deals.
Consolidation among Europe's airlines has always been fitful, and truly sizeable deals have ground to a halt in recent years. By comparison, North America has become the benchmark of airline consolidation progress. The announcement that Alaska Airlines is to acquire Virgin America once again highlights the differences in pace between Europe and North America.
This first part of CAPA's analysis of European airline market structure and consolidation compares market concentration in Europe with that of other world regions and looks at the link with profitability. It mainly focuses on comparing Europe with the other two large aviation markets, North America and Asia Pacific, but also gives data on market concentration for all of the other regions: Middle East, Latin America and Africa.
Europe's fragmented airline market is less profitable than its much more consolidated North American counterpart (although, on most measures, Europe is less fragmented than Asia Pacific). Europe's top 20 airline groups have the same seat share as North America's top 6.
Part two of this report considers a possible set of combinations to reassemble Europe's top 20 into six groups matching North America's top six.
Aeroflot Group's operating profit almost quadrupled in 2015. Among listed European legacy airlines, its 10.6% operating margin placed it behind only Icelandair, but ahead of IAG (these were the only others in double digits). This was achieved in spite of the severe recession in Russia, a nation which has been badly affected by falling oil prices and geopolitical events.
Aeroflot has benefited from the consolidation of Russian aviation and from capacity cuts by foreign airlines. The demise of Transaero accelerated the consolidation process in 2015, and Aeroflot will benefit further from this in 2016. The biggest contributor to the Group's 13% rise in passenger numbers was its low cost subsidiary Pobeda, which completed its first full year of operations in 2015. International transfer traffic through Aeroflot's Moscow Sheremetyevo hub also grew.
This year Aeroflot Group plans an acceleration of ASK growth to double-digit rates. Pobeda has launched its first international routes and the Group's regional airlines Rossiya, Donavia and Orenair will return to growth under the single consolidated brand of Rossiya, helped by routes and aircraft taken on from Transaero. The Group's longer-term goal to become one of Europe's top five airlines looks feasible.
Boeing's 777-300ER was a late bloomer. The variant rolled out in 2002 and had its first delivery in 2004. Yet half of the variant's orders were placed in 2010 and beyond. Two of its record years of sales, 2007 and 2011, coincided with sharp rises in jet fuel, resulting in airlines accelerating retirement of their four engined aircraft. Boeing largely kept business within the family, as the 777-300ER effectively rendered the 747 obsolete; Airbus' A340 succession plan was not so clear.
The world's most powerful twin-engine has come to define the long haul fleets of its biggest operators. The largest, Emirates, operates 114 – almost as many as the next three largest operators combined: Cathay Pacific (53), Air France (40) and Qatar Airways (31). The -300ER variant has 796 orders, comprising over half of all orders for the 777 family. A late bloomer became popular. In Feb-2016 SWISS commenced 777-300ER services, its first time operating the 777. United and Kuwait Airways will also take their first -300ERs in 2016. Orders have slowed since the 777X came into the picture, and in Jan-2016 Boeing announced a production decrease. Boeing still needs to sell new 777s to bridge the production gap until the 777X, but airlines are focusing on growth through second hand acquisitions: British Airways is interested, while Turkish Airlines is taking Kenya Airways' -300ERs.