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US economic activity to slowly expand in 2H2011: The Conference Board

19-Aug-2011 9:16 AM

US' Leading Economic Index (LEI) increased (18-Aug-2011) 0.5% in Jul-2011 to 115.8 (2004 = 100), following a 0.3% increase in Jun-2011 and a 0.7% increase in May-2011, according to The Conference Board. The largest positive contributions came from money supply, the interest rate spread, and average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted). The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the US increased 0.3% in Jul-2011 to 103.3 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1% increase in Jun-2011 and a 0.1% increase in May-2011. The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index (LAG) increased 0.2% in Jul-2011 to 110.0 (2004 = 100), following a 0.4% increase in Jun-2011 and a 0.4% increase in May-2011.[more]

The Conference Board: “The US LEI continued to increase in July. However, with the exception of the money supply and interest rate components, other leading indicators show greater weakness – consistent with increasing concerns about the health of the economic expansion. Despite rising volatility, the leading indicators still suggest economic activity should be slowly expanding through the end of the year," Ataman Ozyildirim, economist. Source: Company Statement, 18-Aug-2011.

The Conference Board: “The economy is slow, with little momentum, and shows no indication of acceleration. The gains in the LEI are modest, especially the nonfinancial indicators. Despite these growing risks, the economy should continue to expand at a modest pace through the fall," Ken Goldstein, economist. Source: Company Statement, 18-Aug-2011.