ICAO forecasts air passenger and freight growth to accelerate through to 2016

ICAO released (16-Jul-2014) its short-term and medium term air passenger and freight traffic forecasts:

World scheduled air passenger traffic (RPKs);

• 2014: 6.0% year-on-year;
• 2015: 6.3%;
• 2016: 6.5%.

World scheduled air freight traffic (FTKs);

• 2014: 3.7% year-on-year;
• 2015: 4.2%;
• 2016: 4.4%.

Forecast assumptions for global GDP:

• 2014: 2.9%;
• 2015: 3.5%;
• 2016: 3.7%.

Forecast assumptions for global export/import volume:

• 2014: 4.2%;
• 2015: 5.3%;
• 2016: 5.1%%.

Regional Growth:

• Middle East is expected to remain the fastest growing region in terms of RPKs, with an estimated growth rate of 11.6 % in 2014. Strong expansion of the network of air carriers in the region will support this double-digit traffic growth. Middle East is also expected to remain the fastest growing region in terms of FTK in 2014, with an estimated growth rate of 12.1%;
• Latin America and Caribbean: Passenger traffic to benefit from the FIFA World Cup in Brazil, with an estimated growth rate of 8.9% in 2014. With a base of solid trade growth, Latin America and Caribbean Regional FTKs should continue growing at a rate of 3.0% in 2014;
• Asia-Pacific: Passenger traffic expected to continue its steady growth, at an estimated rate of 7.2% in 2014. Growth was impacted by the slowdown of the Chinese economy in 1H2014, but there is indication that the deceleration of the Chinese economy is now coming to an end. The regional accounted for almost 40% of world air freight traffic in 2013 and is expected to grow by 3.0% in 2014;
• Europe: Passenger traffic is expected to grow by 5.4% in 2014. The eurozone economy has shown steady improvement in 1H2014 and the recovery trend is expected to continue in the coming months. Europe freight traffic is expected to grow by 2.7% in 2014, supported by economic recovery and improvement in trade of the region;
• Africa: Passenger traffic is expected to grow by 4.8% in 2014 in line with its steady economic growth. A growth trend in trade volumes of Africa should also continue, with the region's FTKs estimated to grow by 3.1%;
• North America: Passenger traffic expected to grow by 2.7% in 2014, in light of the fact that economic activity in the US has rebounded and the employment rate has increased. Freight traffic in North America is expected to grow by 1.4% in 2014. [more - original PR]