China to require 5000 new aircraft by 2030; upgrade of 15% from previous forecast: Boeing

Boeing projected (07-Sep-2011) China will require 5000 new commercial aircraft valued at USD600 billion over the next 20 years through 2030. This marks a 15% increase in the forecast from the previous Nov-2010 forecast of 4330 new aircraft valued at USD480 billion by 2029. Boeing Commercial Airplanes VP of marketing Randy Tinseth said the manufacturer has had a better-than-expected year in China, with the upward forecast reflecting increased demand for air travel in China and opportunities for Chinese carriers to grow their market share internationally.

Details of the revised forecast include:

• Overall fleet increase: Boeing predicts that over the next 20 years, Chinese airlines' fleet of aircraft will more than triple from the current 1750 to 5930. Of the new aircraft, 16% will be replacements for ageing aircraft and 84% extra purchases, Mr Tinseth said;
• Market share: Boeing aims to maintain its 51-52% share of the Chinese market. According to CAPA/Innovata data, Boeing has a 48.4% share of the in-service aircraft in China, compared to 39.9% for Airbus, with the US manufacturer holding a 34.6% share of existing confirmed on-order aircraft in China, slightly lower than the 35.8% at Airbus;
• Small/intermediate twin-aisles: Boeing forecasts that small and intermediate twin-aisles, such as the B787 and B777, will be a significant part of these forecast deliveries. They are expected to constitute over 40% of the market in value, with some 1040 deliveries anticipated. Major Chinese airlines, taking advantage of their membership in the major airline alliances, will gradually shift their focus from domestic to international markets to become competitive global players, Mr Tinseth said;
• Single-aisle market: Boeing expects the single-aisle market (including the new B737 MAX family aircraft) to remain strong, with total deliveries reaching 3550;
• Cargo: Boeing expects Chinese air carriers will add about 400 freighter aircraft by 2030. Mr Tinseth said the majority of the demand will be for large, long-range freighters such as the B747-8F and B777F, given that most traffic growth is projected to occur on long-haul traffic lanes tied to China.

Mr Tinseth stated Boeing had no plans to set up an assembly factory in China, unlike Airbus which operates a plant for A320 aircraft in Tianjin. [more - original PR]

Boeing: "We are becoming more Asia-centric. "For the first time last year, the North American travel market was surpassed by travel within the Asia-Pacific (region)... China will account for more than 40% of demand in the Asia Pacific [over the next 20 years]," Randy Tinseth, Commercial Airplanes VP of marketing. Source: AFP, 07-Sep-2011.

Boeing: "Sustained strong economic growth, growing trade activities, increasing personal wealth and income, as well as continued market liberalisation will be the driving forces in shaping China's air travel market. We expect China will be the second largest country taking new commercial airplane deliveries due to its air travel demand growing at an annual rate of 7.6% on average," Randy Tinseth, Commercial Airplanes VP of marketing. Source: Company Statement, 07-Sep-2011.