Boeing raises 20-year delivery forecast to 33,500 aircraft

Boeing released (16-Jun-2011) its 2011 Current Market Outlook. The outlook foresees a market for 33,500 new passenger aircraft and freighters between 2011 and 2030 with a value of USD4 trillion, a significant increase over the previous forecast of 30,900 aircraft worth USD3.6 trillion. The Asia Pacific is forecast to need the most new aircraft over the next 20 years and will represent the largest market by value of deliveries at more than USD1.5 trillion. The region will account for more than a third of new deliveries worldwide, while the Middle East and Latin America will also continue to show very strong growth.

Global fleet: Increase from 19,410 to 39,530

Fleet composition: 2010 to 2030:

• Regional jets: Reduced from 15% of global fleet to 5%;
• Narrowbody: Increase from 62% to 70%;
• Twin-aisle widebody: Increase from 19% to 20%;
• Very large widebody: Reduced from 4% to 3%.

New aircraft deliveries by region:

• Asia Pacific: 11,450 new aircraft, valued at more than USD1.5 trillion;
• Europe: 7550;
• North America: 7530;
• Latin America: 2570;
• Middle East: 2520;
• CIS: 1080;
• Africa: 800.

Freighter Fleet Forecast:

World freighter fleet forecast to increase from 1760 to 3500 aircraft, including 970 new-production freighters (market value of USD250 billion) and 1990 conversions from passenger models.

• Large: 690 new-build aircraft;
• Medium: 280;
• Standard: No new build-aircraft, but 1240 standard-body conversions.

Forecast assumptions:

• Passenger traffic: 5.1% p/a.
• Air cargo traffic: 5.6 p/a.

• GDP:
  • China: 7% p/a;
  • India and South Asia: 7.1% p/a. [more]