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Southwest Airlines plots course to meet previously missed ROIC targets

Analysis

Southwest Airlines plans to aggressively grow its return on invested capital (ROIC) by 8 ppts in 2013 to 15%, driven by USD1.1 billion in revenue gains derived from schedule adjustments, new ancillary fees and an improved revenue management system. The carrier must close a wide gap in order to meet its goal after recording a 7% ROIC for the 12M ending in Sep-2012, and admitting it fell short of an original 15% target for 2012. But Southwest management is confident that 2013 is the year it will attain its often-cited return goals as it seeks to contain unit cost growth and capture USD400 million in estimated synergies from its acquisition of AirTran.

Carrier executives are tempering some of the confidence they are exuding about meeting ROIC goals with a cautious declaration that there is no guarantee that 15% returns will be displayed in the airline's year-end 2013 results.

Southwest CEO Gary Kelly told investors in late Dec-2012 "it is not a promise, but we're sharing with you our plan". Previously Southwest has struck a cautious tone for 2013 as its operating profit during 3Q2012 plummeted USD174 million to USD51 million.

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