President Trump and US aviation. A likely reversion to protectionism

The 45th President of the USA will be Donald J. Trump.

This CAPA analysis considers the impact of his campaign, and now impending presidency, on the aviation and tourism sector, against the background of the election campaign. It is an upadated version of one produced by CAPA in Jun-2016. There is more to the apparent shift in US international attitudes than just Mr Trump's election, as a sweeping dissatisfaction and distrust of "politicians" pervades that country - and others.

Donald Trump's presidential campaign was marked by a combination of populism, nationalism, protectionism, racism - notably against Mexicans - and anti-Muslim rhetoric. There were also even less attractive elements of his campaign.

Mr Trump's positions were matched at the other end of the political spectrum - in a more palatable way - by Bernie Sanders, who also played to the populist disillusionment with Washington. The result has shifted the US' national policy fulcrum. For aviation purposes Mr Trump has said and done things that are relevant in several important areas, as outlined below. Protectionism and an erosion of free trade is a prominent risk.