Gulf airlines at the Dubai Airshow smash order records, a vivid message to governments and industry

The opening day of the Dubai Airshow brought orders for over 350 widebody passenger aircraft from Gulf carriers. The size of the orders - 150 777Xs and a further 50 A380s for Emirates - gives a sense of the scale Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways are still to achieve. The three have already re-written aviation, from network construction to partnership strategy. While markets have benefitted, the three have caused consternation. No doubt that after this spate of orders, competitors are worried now that projected growth targets in abstract percentage terms have been translated into metal.

But there is some relief. While Emirates has now placed orders for 140 A380s - more than half of the programme total - the airline is most unlikely to operate 140 A380s at one time. There will be growth, but some of the A380s - and 777s and other aircraft ordered - will be for replacement since these orders cover deliveries well into the 2020s, when aircraft from the 2000s and 2010s will be due for replacement. What exactly the balance is between growth and replacement is still being defined within the airlines, and no doubt will be subject to revision. In this report we look at the current fleet and projected deliveries at Emirates, Etihad and Qatar as well as average fleet age to see where these new orders slot in.