Global alliances as the airline system metamorphoses: A view to 2025

The international aviation world will look very different in a decade. The big US airlines are re-emerging from their shells as prosperity (and slow growth in their mature domestic market) prompts them to go forth internationally.

China is inevitably and remorselessly stamping its shape on global markets; the Gulf carriers continue to expand and attract the ire of those who prefer the status quo; and low cost carriers proliferate and metamorphose.

And all this while, sadly, airlines look like remaining confined to the 1940s' archaic ownership and control rules. Within this confinement, they continue to struggle to find new ways of expanding their geography - and, in some cases, of restricting others'. International markets have another drawback. They tend to be much more competitive, in diverse ways, than nationally protected domestic markets.