Chinese airlines have high-speed rail as a friend and foe despite early dire survival questions

To borrow from Mark Twain, reports of Chinese domestic airlines' death by high-speed rail have been greatly exaggerated. With the opening of new high-speed railway lines - and China will have some 16,000km of HSR track by 2020 - come inevitable reports asking if HSR will cannibalise and decimate domestic Chinese air routes, or telling of how flights are empty or being cut by airlines. It is true HSR has resulted in notable traffic declines on a handful of routes and caused one route to be suspended.

But there were approximately 1,600 domestic city-pairs operated by Chinese carriers in 2012 and the routes notably affected by HSR number in the single digits; these were never big to begin to with. Services between Zhengzhou and Xian were suspended after HSR's introduction, but previously the sole daily service was on a regional jet; multiple carriers ply the Beijing-Shanghai route with A330s, while the HSR operates below.

Zhengzhou-Xian services resumed after public confidence in HSR declined following a crash and maximum speeds decreased, highlighting that many unknown developments may improve what is already a moderate worst-case scenario. HSR can be a friend to airlines by having the two partner, as well as a galvanising force for Chinese air transport to become more efficient and competitive, if the right levels of government can be persuaded. Overcoming inertia in that area is one of the biggest challenges.