CAPA to release India Aviation Outlook 2011

This essential report will cover issues such as:

• Review of the performance of and outlook for the key airlines;
• Direction of traffic, capacity and yields;
• Prospects for fleet orders and new airline license applications;
• Key trends in international traffic;
• Growth of regional and general aviation services;
• Implications of the entry of Indian carriers into global alliances;
• Prospects for liberalisation such as bilateral access, foreign airline ownership;
• Expected priorities of the Ministry after the recent re-shuffle;
• Next steps for the public sector airline and airport units;
• Status of airport modernisation and greenfield development programmes;
• Likely developments in economic regulation of the sector.

CAPA has a strong and established track record in accurately identifying key trends and developments in the Indian market. Twelve months ago, in its Outlook 2010, CAPA projected that domestic traffic would grow by 15-20% on capacity growth of 10%, which would result in a capacity crunch during the peak third quarter.

The actual result for the year was 18.7% traffic growth, with capacity in line with the forecast and the third quarter was marked by unprecedented and controversial fare increases as a result of record load factors. International traffic was within our forecast range of 10-12% growth.

Meanwhile, the financial results for the current fiscal are expected to be precisely in line with CAPA's guidance set one year ago that the private carriers would post a combined profit of US$250-300 million and that Air India would reduce its losses to US$650-700 million.

CAPA also stated that IndiGo would be the lead performer in the domestic market (it has achieved the fastest growth over the last 12 months) and that SpiceJet would be at the centre of any ownership changes or consolidation in the market (2010 saw Sun TV acquire a controlling stake in the airline).

In fact, CAPA's market outlook has been accurate over the longer term as well. In January 2005, at which time domestic traffic stood at just under 18 million passengers per annum, CAPA forecast that it would exceed 50 million in 2010. Six years later, the actual figure came in at 52 million. And in May 2006, when the LCC market share was 29%, we forecast that it would increase to 60-70% by the end of 2010. Today it stands at 65%.

Access to the insights provided by CAPA's Outlook is invaluable for any business with interests in Indian aviation. This 25 page report will be released on 28 February 2011 and subscribers will receive a mid-year update in July 2011 at no additional cost. A special pre-release rate of US$1,595 is available for payments received on/before 25 February, after which the standard rate of US$2,495 will apply.

To order your copy now, please download the order form (PDF) in the Attachments box at the top left of this page, print and fax it to us.