Beware the minefield of 2012 – It will be a terminal year for some airlines

Global outlook for 2012:

• A year of uncertainty and challenges in prospect, with risks galore;
• Fuel costs harm profitability across the industry, also threat the viability of some models; meanwhile high oil prices restrain demand;
• Europe's economic problems and bank lending caution will suppress demand - and encourage European airlines to relocate capacity outside the region;
• Middle East and Asian airlines continue to spread their wings globally, rapidly shifting the balance of power;
• Across the world, pressures to merge will intensify;
• There is potential for rising protectionism, even trade wars, in stagnant markets such as Europe and the US;
• Employees' "concession fatigue" provokes industrial unrest as cutbacks continue;
• Asia, the Middle East and Latin America continue to grow, but profitability declines as yield profiles are diluted and structural change accelerates.