Shanghai Pudong Airport

The A380 becomes mainstream, with 103 now in service: which airlines, destinations, stage lengths?

There are 103 A380s in service as of early May-2013. Emirates has 33 and Singapore Airlines has 19, so when assessing network scheduling, these two and their hubs predominate: of the 1,048 weekly A380 flights, 402 are from Emirates alone. Dubai and Singapore airport see the most A380 flights.

But there are some less predictable statistics. The airport to see the most A380 operators is Hong Kong followed by Paris and Los Angeles. The largest A380 destination that is not (yet) an A380-hub is London Heathrow. The UK and USA are the most common A380 destinations after Australia, Singapore and the UAE. Asia, not the Middle East, sees the most A380 flights; South America sees none. Guangzhou-Shanghai Pudong is the shortest A380 route at 1,202km while Los Angeles-Melbourne is the longest at 12,751km. Qantas and Lufthansa have the highest average sector length while Thai Airways is placing the most number of cycles – about two – on its aircraft per day. Qantas and Air France are placing the least (just over one).

China airport wrap: Beijing still not #1 while western China airports lead double-digit growth

A slowdown in Chinese traffic at the end of 2012 resulting from decreased activity in line with the government’s leadership transition saw Beijing Capital Airport miss a widely-held projection that it would overtake Atlanta Hartsfield airport for the title of world’s largest passenger airport. Beijing remained in the #2 spot after breathtaking growth that saw it enter the world’s 10 largest airports only in 2006.

Growth at Beijing and other major Chinese airports will slow as slots become increasingly difficult to secure. The highest growth amongst major Chinese airports is occurring in China’s west and northeast regions, home to airports including Chongqing, Shenyang and Urumqi.

They are a fraction of the size of Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, which account for 31% of passenger movements, but will increasingly garner international attention.

Delta Air Lines improves China position with better slots from partners China Eastern & Southern

Slots at Chinese airports cannot be openly swapped the way they can at other airports – such as at London Heathrow where slot trading over the past year has occurred between Jet Airways and Etihad, Cathay Pacific and Air New Zealand, Qantas and British Airways, Delta and unnamed partners and perhaps soon Aer Lingus and British Airways. This has become problematic for carriers like Delta, which are given late arrival times and early departures that stymie critical connecting traffic.

But Delta in recent months has been able to leverage its partnerships with fellow SkyTeam carriers China Eastern and China Southern to adjust their slot portfolio to maximise connections, which benefit both parties. Delta has been able to move its Detroit-Beijing/Shanghai Pudong services to arrive in the afternoon and depart in the evening, key times for foreign long-haul carriers. While this improves Delta's position in China – the smallest of the three US carriers present – its ability to tap into new cities appears limited owing to fleet limitations.

Shanghai Pudong Airport to have new slots. Allocating them strategically will help shape its future

Shanghai Pudong expects its fourth runway to be completed at the end of 2013 but new slots are unlikely to be available until some point in 2014. It is not clear – not even to Chinese carriers – how many new slots will be available, but an early estimate of 242 additional movements (121 roundtrips) between 07.00 to 22.00 each day could be possible. A more deciding factor will be how much additional airspace is opened by China's military for the runway.

The majority of the new slots at Shanghai Pudong Airport – and even upwards of 75% – will likely be allocated to China's domestic carriers. China Eastern, based at Shanghai, will have to battle Air China, which is based at Beijing but looking to establish a hub at Shanghai. As the national flag carrier, Air China and its lobbying network may do well. Private carriers Juneyao and Spring Airlines will also look to expand their home bases.

A number of carriers, including LCCs, will seek to move midnight services to daylight hours while any number of foreign carriers will seek to expand their presence or enter Shanghai for the first time. Strategic allocation will help Pudong, but the decision will be heavy, almost entirely, political.

Air China turns attention to international markets, but its profits are regional and domestic

Air China's hub at Beijing Capital is effectively at capacity for movements between 07:00 and midnight. Consequently the carrier is increasingly using its existing slots to launch international services that support its positioning as China's international flag airline; this also allows Air China to grow revenue, which in 2012 surpassed RMB100 billion (USD16 billion) for the first time. But these services, aside from Taiwan, offer only lower yields and faint glimmers of profitability – unlike the domestic heartland operations.

With Air China's domestic RPKs growing only 0.5% in 2012, the carrier is seeking to assure the market it has domestic growth opportunities left by expanding its hubs at Chengdu and Shanghai, although the latter is also constrained by slots. The Air China Group also has a portfolio of domestic carriers, including Shenzhen Airlines (the country's sixth largest), Shandong Airlines and Tibet Airlines. They account for about a third of the group's domestic revenue and most traffic growth.

Juneyao Airlines continues international expansion in North & Southeast Asia, and seeks partners

China's Juneyao Airlines is continuing the progressive international expansion it commenced in 2012, further diluting its mainland domestic market service (excluding "regional" services to Hong Kong and Macau). Thailand is so far a focus, with the country's leisure nature appealing to the privately-owned, and all-A320 family, operator's target market, of consumers in the high-income Shanghai area seeking a boutique service for leisure needs. Juneyao's 158-seat A320s have 150 economy and eight first class seats. The carrier also sees corporate traffic, but downplays this so as to avoid conflict with the state-owned carriers which receive preference on international routes.

Juneyao had considered services to Japan's resort island of Okinawa, but this has fallen out of favour due to political tensions between China and Japan. Chinese carriers are turning their attention to Southeast Asia as they seek new markets, and the region offers year-round pleasant weather. Juneyao is also expanding in South Korea and is considering a presence in Singapore. Juneyao hopes these services will raise its international profile and attract potential partners to work on international routes or feed passengers onto Juneyao's domestic network based around Shanghai. Juneyao is the 13th largest domestic carrier in China and has a fleet of 29 A320s, of comparable size to Virgin America, which has been able to attract international partners.