Sao Paulo Guarulhos International Airport

LATAM’s 4Q2012 yields are damaged by aggressive competitive expansion in the US-Brazil market

Competitive pressure in long-haul markets between the US and Brazil was a major driver in the 10.3% year-over-year decrease in yields during 4Q2012 for the powerful newly minted LATAM Airlines Group, which is the combination of Brazil’s leading carrier TAM and South American group LAN. The performance in long-haul markets is likely disappointing for the group as its performance in Brazil’s cooling domestic market improved during the last three months of 2012.

In some ways the competitive pressure on long-haul markets from the US and Brazil will be short-lived as TAM and American Airlines are working to forge a codeshare partnership that will see the two historic rivals team up in the market now that LATAM has selected oneworld as its alliance of choice. Once all the regulatory approvals for the tie-up are in place, TAM will be able to benefit from onward connections in Miami and New York that it currently does not enjoy. Based on current schedules in Innovata (24-Mar-2013 to 30-Mar-2013) TAM and American presently account for 69% of the capacity between the US and Brazil.

US carriers face a mixed outlook in Latin America as yields in the region weaken

US carriers are facing some weakness in their Latin American performance as significant capacity growth between the two regions appears to be pressuring unit revenue and yields. All three major US network carriers with a robust presence in the market – American, Delta and United – watched their yields plummet during 4Q2012 as they expanded capacity significantly to Latin America year-over-year. The weakness during the last three months of 2012 follows a somewhat lacklustre performance by those airlines during 3Q2012, which could indicate the US-Latin American market is reaching a certain level of maturity. 

During 4Q2012 American, Delta and United posted declines in unit revenue and yields on their routes between the US and Latin America. American recorded the greatest decline in unit revenues of 5.4% while United posted the largest slide in yields of 6.5%. Delta and American increased capacity to the region by 9.4% and 8.3%, respectively, while United’s capacity declined slightly by about 1%.

US Airways, which has a marginal presence between the US and South America and the Caribbean (and doesn't break out yield and unit revenue performance by region), recorded a 3% drop in unit revenues in the region. The carrier serves only one market in South America, Rio de Janeiro, and several leisure points in the Caribbean. US Ariways’ new service from its Charlotte hub to Sao Paulo begins in May-2013

Gol’s latest attempt to serve the booming Brazil-US market faces challenges

Brazil’s Gol is testing out an unusual variation of the long-haul low-cost model by launching a one-stop operation between Brazil and the US. But the experiment will likely be short-lived as Latin America’s largest LCC will face intense competition in the Brazil-US market and is not offering connections on either end.

On 15-Dec-2012, Gol re-entered the US market with new daily Boeing 737-800 services to Miami and Orlando. Both new scheduled flights operate from Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic, which serves as a fuel stop and transit point for the operation. One of the flights originates at Sao Paul Guarulhos and the other flight originates at Rio de Janeiro Galeao. The flights are timed to reach Santo Domingo at the about same time, allowing for passengers from either Brazilian city to travel to either US destination.

Avianca Brazil to slow down expansion in 2013; to benefit from TAP acquisition and Star membership

Avianca Brazil plans to slow down expansion in 2013, taking a hiatus following a growth spurt which saw the carrier more than double in size in less than two years. Avianca Brazil’s outlook remains bright despite Brazil’s challenging market, which has led the country’s two largest carriers to cut domestic capacity, as it is poised to benefit from anticipated membership in the Star Alliance and the possible acquisition of TAP Portugal by its parent company.

Avianca Brazil is 100% owned by Brazilian investment firm Synergy Group, which is also the largest shareholder in Avianca-TACA Holding, the parent of several carriers in other Latin America countries including four members of the Star Alliance. Synergy is also the only remaining bidder in the sale of Star member TAP Portugal, which has an extensive network in Brazil that would add significant value to Avianca Brazil’s all-domestic network.

Peru's market grows rapidly as TACA builds domestic share and LAN continues international push

Air traffic in the Peruvian domestic and international markets continues to grow steadily as overall traffic growth in Latin America remains strong despite weakening economies in Europe. Through the first five months of 2012 Peru recorded 14% growth year-over-year in domestic passengers carried as TACA Peru continued to build up its market share after making a two-phased expansion into the domestic space starting in 2010.

Peru's international market also has been growing rapidly, expanding by 15% through the first five months of 2012. Peru's largest carrier and TACA Peru's main rival, Lan Peru, has been expanding its international operation and is now planning another push from its Lima hub to leverage the combined network of new parent LATAM to capitalise on connecting passengers from North America, which should further bolster Peru’s international market.

LAN-TAM parent LATAM’s first combined financials offer a mixed bag behind consolidated net profit

Latin America’s powerful new force LATAM Airlines Group recorded USD50 million in net income and USD23 million in operating income for 2Q2012, the first time the combined entity of LAN and TAM has reported consolidated quarterly results since the close of their historic merger on 22-Jun-2012. While the combined result was positive, the separate performance of each carrier was less favourable with TAM recording a USD14 million operating loss for 2Q2012 and LAN only turning a small operating profit of USD37 million. The combined result posted by LATAM only includes eight days of contribution from TAM as the merger was finalised near the end of 2Q2012.

TAM posted a BRL928 million (USD458 million) net loss during 2Q2012 driven by foreign exchange currency challenges and losses from the carrier’s fuel hedging portfolio. LAN recorded a 68% slide in net profits to USD5 million, driven by weaker conditions in its cargo business and one time costs associated with union negotiations and the merger with TAM. Going forward the combined company plans to focus much of its 3%-4% capacity growth in 2012 on the strong north-south routes to North America.