Chongqing Airport

South Korea's Asiana targets growth in 2013 within Asia, in advance of big long-haul growth in 2014

One of the highest growth rates in North Asia in 2013 will be from South Korea's Asiana, which is projecting a 9% increase in RPKs. This compares to 4% RPK growth at Korean Air and modest growth from All Nippon Airways and Japan Airlines. Many Chinese carriers will have similar or higher growth, but notably Air China will be lower as it runs out of slots.

The focus in 2013 for Asiana, globally the 54th largest airline based on capacity and sixth largest for intra-Asia international capacity, is regional flights, increasing capacity to cities including Chongqing and Yangon and launching new services to Denpasar and Jakarta. This traffic will help feed its long-haul network, due to commence notable expansion beginning in 2014 as A380s replace 777-200ERs, facilitating their re-deployment to new routes.

Chinese air cargo shifts from Shanghai to the Three Cs: Chengdu, Chongqing and CGO

The central Chinese city of Zhengzhou may seem obscure, but it is estimated to produce half of the world's iPhones. It is part of the story of Chinese manufacturing shifting from traditional coastal areas to central and western China, where wages are lower. That in turn is contributing to new air services and is directly impacting freight, with demand moving to what Cathay Pacific terms the "Three Cs": Chengdu, Chongqing and CGO (the airport code for Zhengzhou). This trio of cities has collectively overtaken Shanghai as Cathay's largest Chinese freight market.

Volumes at Zhengzhou, the smallest of the three, grew over 40% in 2012 while Chengdu saw steady growth and Chongqing double-digit growth. Shanghai saw single-digit percent decreases.

More resources are being put into establishing Chengdu and Chongqing as western capitals for China, and passenger services have flowed, with British Airways and Qatar Airways the latest to announce service to Chengdu. Finnair and Qatar already serve Chongqing. Zhengzhou maintains a less diversified economy and so sees a heavy presence of dedicated freighters and no intercontinental services.

Spring Airlines in major move adds flights from Hong Kong to Chongqing, Hangzhou, Nanjing and Xiamen

At CAPA's World Aviation Summit in Hong Kong on 28 & 29 Nov-2012, Spring Airlines announced a significant expansion of its services between Hong Kong and mainland China, a high-demand market that has only recently seen competition. Spring's addition of services from Hong Kong to Chongqing, Hangzhou, Nanjing and Xiamen supplement its three daily flights between Hong Kong and its base at Shanghai.

The once-stagnant market is seeing rapid change and competition with fledging carrier Hong Kong Airlines, invigorated mainland carriers, a tie-up between Hong Kong Airlines and China Eastern as well as the forthcoming entry of planned LCC Jetstar Hong Kong.

Spring commenced services in 2005 as a LCC but is moving away from a strict interpretation of the model at it seeks higher yields, hybridising as other former LCCs have done. Its advantage and platform for growth is efficiency, which is generally lacking in China's state-owned airlines.

AirAsia X IPO prospectus shows strength. AirAsia synergies help, also require definition

The prospectus for the forthcoming IPO for AirAsia X, a separate business from AirAsia, shows that the low-cost long-haul model can be successful, operationally and profitably, but only when deployed sensibly. During 1H2012, a challenging time for the global industry, AirAsia X reported a respectable 7.9% pre-tax margin on services to Australia, which comprise about half of the carrier's capacity.

The low cost model is ideally suited to Asia's price sensitive, high growth environment and AirAsia X's symbiotic relationship with Asia's biggest LCC, AirAsia, makes it a formidable model.

Attempts to serve Europe, since ended, resulted in a -26% margin in 2011. Yet Europe's weakness for AirAsia X was acknowledged early on. The sharply business-minded CEO Azran Osman-Rani went in saying he would be happy to break even; AirAsia X fell to pressure to plant the red flag in Europe at the behest of part-owner AirAsia, which still harbours an entrepreneurial spirit – and, at times, the associated confidence.

This will be the market's crux for AirAsia X's future – where AirAsia stops and where AirAsia X begins. AirAsia X is substantially complemented by AirAsia to sustain its effectiveness. The relationship between the two is a give and a take. The market, in assessing the IPO, will determine the balance.

British Airways considers secondary Chinese cities, possible codeshare with China Southern

British Airways (BA) looks increasingly likely finally to enter secondary Chinese cities, becoming the last major European carrier venturing beyond the main gateways to lesser known destinations – but with populations greatly exceeding those of European counterparts. London Heathrow slots gained from the acquisition of bmi and the introduction of additional long-haul aircraft, including the Boeing 787, are bringing cities – as flagged by BA – such as Chengdu, Chongqing, Guangzhou and X'ian into focus as candidates.

BA has also struggled with finding a mainland partner carrier, but now looks likely to find a solution with a codeshare with SkyTeam's China Southern.

The potential partnership adds to the alliance rethink that BA, and parent company IAG, are going through as they seek to adjust to a new world order. Qatar Airways, at the welcoming of IAG's Willie Walsh, is expected to join the oneworld alliance, with an announcement possibly merely weeks away.

New routes to China to flourish in the next few years

China's leading airports are on the cusp of strong international growth, with several new routes to be launched in the coming 12 to 24 months. Growth will be driven by foreign and local needs: countries will have greater needs to further link with China while locally there will be an increasing propensity to travel among the Chinese population as incomes rise, while high-speed rail expansion will push Chinese airlines to grow internationally, at the same time providing feed opportunities for foreign carriers at the main Chinese gateways.

But growth is not only expected at the main Chinese hubs. Second tier airports can also look forward to increasing air services as the Government supports expansion from these hubs and as the LCC revolution takes hold in North Asia. New carriers across the region will be looking for new route opportunities, fuelling rapid growth at non-congested Chinese gateways. China's own second tier airlines are also looking to expand abroad, mainly within the Asia Pacific region, which will spur development at the provincial capitals across China's vast interior and economic zones.