COPA

Avianca-TACA primes for re-branding and intensifying competition with LATAM

Avianca-TACA will come full circle during 2H2013 as its various airlines unify under the Avianca brand more than three years after the Avianca-TACA merger kickstarted consolidation in Latin America and drove the decision by LAN and TAM to form what is now the region’s powerhouse LATAM Airlines Group. During 2013 the competition between the two largest airline groups in Latin American will only intensify in the markets where they already compete fiercely – Colombia, Ecuador and Peru.

With Avianca-TACA completing its merger more than two years ahead of LATAM, Avianca-TACA has the benefit of harvesting a combined network whereas LATAM is just beginning to ferret out the benefits of its newly combined network resources.

In addition to continued competitive pressure from LATAM during 2013 Avianca-TACA will also encounter some new competition on international flights from Ecuador and some pressure from startup VivaColombia in its largest market Colombia. At the same time Avianca-TACA continues to battle infrastructure constraints at its largest hub Bogota, which could result in further expansion at its Lima and San Salvador hubs.

Pressure mounts on Star and SkyTeam to secure Brazilian members as TAM confirms switch to oneworld

LATAM Airlines Group announced on 07-Mar-2013 that its TAM, TAM Paraguay and LAN Colombia subsidiaries would join its sister carriers in oneworld, confirming moves which had been considered a foregone conclusion for 18 months. The Star Alliance now faces the risk of not having a member in Brazil, one of the world’s most important growth markets, after TAM shifts from Star to oneworld in 2Q2014. But the void will not last long as Brazil’s fourth largest carrier, Avianca Brazil, will almost certainly join its sister carriers in Star, potentially by the end of 2014.

Meanwhile, Brazil’s second largest carrier Gol continues to be wooed by SkyTeam. With TAM moving to oneworld and Avianca Brazil expected to join Star, the stakes mount for SkyTeam while the benefit of maintaining independence for Gol diminishes.

Panama’s Copa on course for more industry-leading profits and double-digit growth in 2013

Panama-based Copa continues to outperform nearly every airline group in the world, recording an operating profit margin of 17.9% for 2012 as profits increased by 5% to USD327 million. Copa has been consistently highly profitable since its 2005 initial public offering, with annual operating margins every year of at least 17%. During this period the average operating profit margin in the global airline industry has been in the zero to 4% range.

Copa, which has more than tripled its annual RPKs since 2005, expects more double-digit growth and industry leading profitability in 2013. Panama has the fastest growing economy in Latin America and the region overall continues to have healthy GDP growth, fuelling demand for travel within the region. Copa is well positioned to cash in on the continued rapid growth in international travel within Latin America as Panama City is the largest intra-Latin America hub and, unlike most other airports in the region, is committed to expanding the infrastructure to keep up with Copa’s rapid growth trajectory.

Latin America growth could slow if infrastructure challenges are not addressed

Latin America is facing a huge infrastructure crunch and a growing risk that airport congestion could impede further rapid growth in passenger traffic. Most of Latin America’s major airports are congested and way behind the curve in responding to the growth of the last decade and preparing for the anticipated growth of the next decade.

The Latin American airline industry has recorded rapid growth over the last 10 years and has become one of the world’s largest emerging markets. But infrastructure has not expanded nearly as fast and most of the region’s governments are still not responding fast enough, according to Latin American and Caribbean airline association ALTA.

Allegiant’s addition of A319s offers both network expansion opportunities and fleet flexibility

Underpinning the economics behind Allegiant Air’s decision to introduce 156-seat Airbus A319 narrowbodies into its fleet during 4Q2012 are the network expansion opportunities the aircraft provide and a new level of fleet flexibility to ground nearly depreciated aircraft if market conditions take a change for the worse. At the same time the carrier’s third fleet type comes online, Allegiant is adding new Boeing 757 service to Hawaii, giving the small US domestic markets of Boise, Idaho and Spokane, Washington direct access Honolulu.

The Boeing MD-80 was the foundation of Allegiant’s fleet from the early 2000s until the carrier began operating 757s in 2011 as it worked to gain requisite approvals to operate those aircraft on their original mission to Hawaii. Allegiant inaugurated flights from its Las Vegas base and Fresno, California to Honolulu in late Jun-2012, and during 4Q2012 and 1Q2013 the carrier plans to add more service to Hawaii, expanding its strategy of connecting small cities to large leisure destinations beyond the US mainland.

New LAN-TAM parent Latam emerges as a leader globally and a powerful force across South America

Latin American airline groups LAN and TAM have finally completed their historic merger, creating a single powerful group which accounts for about one-third of total capacity in the fast-growing South American market. Latam Airlines Group is the market leader in Brazil, which is by far the largest market in Latin America and one of the four BRIC countries, and in three smaller South American countries – Chile, Peru and Paraguay. Latam is also the second largest player in another three South American markets – Argentina, Colombia and Ecuador.

Latam was formally established on 22-Jun-2012, when the LAN and TAM merger transaction was finally completed, ending a drawn out 22 month process that began in Aug-2010 with the signing of an memorandum of understanding between Latin America’s two largest airline groups (by revenue). Trading of Latam shares began on 27-Jun-2012 in New York, Sao Paulo and Santiago as TAM shares were delisted.