Sweden’s LFV reported (24-May-2010) a loss of EUR4.5 million for the three months ended 31-Mar-2010, compared with a loss of EUR3.9 million in the previous corresponding period due to the effect of the Iceland volcanic disruptions on traffic. During the period, passenger numbers rose 4% while aircraft movements fell 2%. [more]
LFV reports loss in 1Q2010 due to ash disruptions
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SAS: 2Q losses widen after six quarters of improving results. LCCs & SAS growth depress unit revenue
After improving its underlying profit in FY2015 and narrowing its losses in the seasonally weak 1Q2016, SAS suffered a widening of losses in 2Q2016. This was the first year-on-year deterioration in its underlying result for six quarters. It benefited from lower fuel prices and from its own cost savings programme, but experienced plummeting unit revenue.
This reflects the ongoing growth of LCC competition in short haul markets, but is also the result of its own capacity increase. SAS' growth is led by rapid expansion on long haul, where Norwegian is also providing LCC competition. SAS is investing in its network and product and growing its revenue from higher-yielding loyalty scheme members, but these measures do not appear to be giving sufficient support to unit revenue.
These trends are unlikely to dissipate any time soon, and there is now the real prospect that its FY2015 result represented a cyclical peak for SAS. The company recognises the need for further change in order to improve its competitiveness. Strategies to seek labour cost reform can be expected, in spite of a strike call by Swedish pilots.
CAPA global airline financial outlook
Operating margin to reach new high in 2016, but this may signal a subsequent downturn. CAPA’s global airline operating margin model indicates that the industry was more profitable in 2015 than it has been for almost five decades. Moreover, the model predicts that world airline operating margins will rise further above previous historic peak levels in 2016. These new levels of profitability are mainly thanks to the low oil price environment, coupled with strong demand growth in spite of global economic growth rates that are far from exceptional.
Much of the industry is also benefiting from a period of relative capacity discipline. New revenue sources may also be helping, although their role in airline profitability is still emerging.
The macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrops provide the main risks to this forecast. Beyond that, the biggest challenge for the industry will then be to try to sustain margin levels, rather than to allow a peak to be followed by a rapid downturn, as has always happened in the past. But downturns can play a positive role in industry development, possibly even stimulating consolidation.