IATA: Recovery in air travel to lag behind economic activity

IATA stated (15-May-2020) recovery in air travel following the coronavirus pandemic is expected to lag behind economic activity. Global GDP growth is expected to decrease by approximately 5% in 2020 before returning to its 2019 level in 2021. The decline in air passenger volumes (RPKs) is much more severe, with a 50% drop in 2020, and is not expected to return to its 2019 level until 2023. IATA outlined the following reasons why RPK recovery is likely to lag behind broader economic activity:

• Consumer confidence in air travel remains key and may take some time to be restored;
• After a lockdown in 2Q2020, IATA expects domestic and short haul air travel markets will begin to recover over the course of 3Q2020, but long haul markets will be slower to recommence;
• Domestic RPKs are expected to decline by around 40% in 2020, while international RPKs are likely to decline by around 60%. As a result, IATA expects the average trip length will decline by around 8.5% before gradually recovering;
• Uncertainty remains regarding the pandemic and the expected recovery profile. [more - original PR]