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Avolon forecasts Boeing will deliver more aircraft than Airbus over the next 20 years

14-Jun-2013 9:46 AM

Avolon released (13-Jun-2013) its 2013 20-year ‘World Fleet Forecast’. Avolon expects almost 36,000 aircraft to be delivered over the next 20 years, increasing the global commercial airline fleet to 43,000 aircraft.

Forecast assumptions (20-year growth rates):

  • GDP: 3.1%;
  • RPKs: 5.2%;
  • ASKs: 5.1%;
  • Cargo traffic: 5.6%;
  • Fleet size: 3.3%;
  • Fuel burn per ASKs: -1.3%.

Fleet forecast:

  • New deliveries: 35,700;
  • Passenger aircraft: 34,700;
  • Freighter aircraft: 1000;
  • Freighter conversions: 1700.

Type breakdown:

  • Regional jets (<100 seats): 1000
  • Narrowbodies (100-210 seat): 24900;
  • Intermediate widebodies: 5300;
  • Large widebodies: 2200;
  • Widebody freighters: 1000.

Deliveries by manufacturer:

Fleet retirements:

  • Total retirements: 15,300
  • Passenger aircraft: 13,400;
  • Freighter aircraft: 1900;

Fleet size:

  • Passenger aircraft: 20,400 (2012) increasing to 42,800 (2032);
  • Freighter fleet: 1900 increasing to 2800

Aircraft financing cost: USD3.5 trillion.

  • Average annual aircraft financing cost: USD125 billion.
    • Narrowbodies: 46% of financing;
    • Widebodies: 45%;
    • Widebody freighters: 6%;
    • Regional jets: 3%. [more - original PR]