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Turkish Airlines SWOT Analysis: Can the dream continue?

7th January, 2010

Turkish Airlines is a rising force in the European and Middle East aviation industry, capturing the interest of investors, alliance partners and rivals. The fast-growing carrier is not only increasing its size at a time when the majority of its European counterparts are shrinking, but is profitable whilst doing so. After reporting the third largest net profit and seventh largest operating profits in the aviation industry in 2008, the airline's revenues and profits are expected to increase from these bases in 2009. Investors are clearly delighted with the airline’s growth trajectory, with Turkish Airlines’ stock surging 425% in 2009 – the biggest gain by far among carriers tracked by The Centre globally last year. But can the dream run continue? [5165 words]

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This report contains the following subheadings:

  • Strong position in markets it serves
  • STRENGTHS:  Strong national features and  profitable growth in a difficult 2009
  • WEAKNESSES: Expensive fleet structure and aircraft utilisation moving in the wrong direction
  • OPPORTUNITIES:  Turkey – a market of opportunities
  • THREATS: LCCs and currency may challenge profitability
  • OUTLOOK: Tougher conditions ahead?

This report contains the following charts and tables:

  • Turkish Airlines A319; another 20 A320 family aircraft ordered in Jan-2010
  • European airlines share price growth in 2009
  • Key Turkey data: 2008 World Bank Data
  • Turkish Airlines operating and net profit (EUR mill): 2005 to nine months to Sep-2009
  • Turkish Airlines operating revenue and operating expenses (EUR bill): 2005 to nine months to Sep-2009
  • Turkish Airlines EBITDAR margin (%): 2005 to nine months to Sep-2009
  • EBITDAR margin (%) comparisons: Nine months to Sep-2009
  • Turkish Airlines and European airline peer growth cost per ASK: Nine months ended Sep-2009
  • Turkish Airlines: Revenue-Expense profile for the nine months ended Sep-2009
  • Turkish Airlines traffic (RPKs), capacity (ASKs) and load factor (%): 2005 to nine months to Sep-2009
  • Turkish Airlines passenger numbers, traffic (RPKs) and capacity (ASKs) growth vs AEA growth: 2007 vs 2008 vs nine months to Sep-2009
  • Turkish Airlines domestic network: 2009
  •  Turkish Airlines’ subsidiaries and affiliates
  • Turkish Airlines network growth development
  • Passenger revenue split by geography: Nine months ended Sep-2009
  • Turkish Airlines international network: 2009
  • Turkish Airlines Shorthaul vs Longhaul fleet mix including orders
  • Turkish Airlines Shorthaul vs Longhaul fleet as at Jan-2010
  • Turkish Airlines’ fleet composition: Sep-2009
  • Turkish Airlines fleet utilisation: 2005 to 2009 (hours/day)
  • Star Alliance member carrier’s operating capacity as a portion of total capacity (seats): Jan-2010
  • Turkish international capacity share by alliance: Jan-2010
  • EUROCONTROL IFR Movements: 2009; Turkish movements up 4.1%
  • EUROCONTROL IFR short-term forecast for 2010; even higher growth
  • Traffic zones contributing most to additional IFR movements: Sep-2009 to Nov-2009
  • AEA cargo traffic (FTK) growth: Oct-08 to Oct-09
  • Turkish Cargo Market vs THY
  • Major scheduled service airports in Turkey
  • Bilateral Agreements signed by Turkish DGCA in 2008/2009
  • Turkey domestic capacity (seats per month), LCCs as a percentage of the total: Jan-Aug-2001 vs Jan-Aug-2009 
  • Turkey international capacity (seats per month), LCCs as a percentage of the total: Jan-Aug-2001 vs Jan-Aug-2009 
  • The LCC competitors vs the Turkish Airlines team