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Narrowbody aircraft deliveries to plunge 20% over next three years - Ascend

24-Sep-2009

Narrowbody aircraft deliveries to airlines worldwide could be down by as much as 20% over the next three years, due to the effects of the global economic downturn, according to Ascend’s new Global Fleet Forecaster. Ascend is not predicting a return to growth in jet deliveries until 2012, as airlines hasten the phase-out of the older generation aircraft types amid the downturn.

In the narrowbody segment, the 125-160 seat sizes (in particular the 150-160 seat A320 and 737-800) will remain the core (increasing their share from 78% to 85% of the fleet), both for the growing low cost carriers and also the legacy carriers as they renew their fleets. The A320 and 737 families will account for the vast majority, with the new Bombardier C130 coming in to compete with the A319 and 737-700, according to the Global Fleet Forecaster.

400 widebody deliveries next year from mid next decade

Widebody deliveries are forecast to grow to over 400 a year by the middle of the next decade, “subject to the Boeing 787 and Airbus A350 achieving planned rates” of production, according to Ascend.

Deliveries to Asia Pacific region to grow strongly

The Asia Pacific region currently accounts for 22% of the jet fleet (behind North America and Europe) but the strong growth in the region (which will account for 35% of all deliveries) will see it surpass Europe to have a 28% share in 2019, just one point behind North America.

The Chinese fleet will expand at increasing growth rates, from 7% to a 10% global share and taking 14% of all aircraft deliveries.

Southeast Asia’s narrowbody needs are growing along with the expansion of low cost carriers, led by AirAsia. Some 36% of global narrowbody deliveries will be to Asia (17% in China alone) over the coming decade.

Click here for more information on Ascend’s Global Fleet Forecaster.


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