IATA boosts Asia Pacific traffic forecast for 2010
IATA has revised upwards its forecast for Asia Pacific airline passenger and cargo traffic in 2010 by 4.2 ppts from its Mar-2010 projection to a very strong 16.2%. The regional capacity projection is up 1 ppt from the previous outlook to 8.3% - around half the expected growth in demand - which is producing load factor and yield gains.
IATA Asia Pacific and global traffic* and capacity forecast (% change year-on-year) for 2010 (USD)
|
March Forecast |
June Forecast |
|
|---|---|---|
|
Global Traffic (TKP) |
+7.3% |
+10.2% |
|
- Asia Pacific Traffic (TKP) |
+12.0% |
+16.2% |
|
Global Capacity (ATK) |
+4.0% |
+5.4% |
|
- Asia Pacific Capacity (ATK) |
+7.3% |
+8.3% |
As a result, the region's carriers are expected to deliver the largest profit of the global regions at USD2.2 billion. This is more than double the previously forecast USD900 million in March and a major reversal from the USD2.7 billion loss in 2009, according to IATA.
The projection did little for airline stocks in the region yesterday, which were buffeted by further global equity market jitters. AirAsia (-4.6%) and China Southern (-4.4%) led the falls, while Virgin Blue (-3.2%), Thai Airways (-2.5%) and Qantas (-2.4%) were also down. Asiana Airlines (+0.4%) and China Airlines (+0.7%) were the only carriers to rise.
See CAPA's Hot Issues profile on the Outlook, Forecasts and Guidance.
Asia Pacific selected airlines daily share price movements (% change): 07-Jun-2010
Source: Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation & Reuters