China's aviation reforms and a rush of airline start-ups boost growth prospects; and fleets recycle

China's aviation market is slowing. In aviation, China's double-digit growth days may be gone, but Boeing is buoyed by recent developments and has raised its 2013 projection for new aircraft by 7.8%. Underpinning the growth outlook are policy reforms that have ushered in new airlines, including low-cost carriers, which historically grow fast. They also grow traffic. No less than 19 airlines in China have recently launched or plan to.

In its growth trajectory, China is expected to receive 301 new aircraft every year for 20 years, or an average of one every 29 hours. In 2013, the main three airline groups - Air China, China Eastern and China Southern - collectively took about 200 aircraft. They expect finally to moderate growth in 2015, when a new five-year plan starts across the country.

Start-ups will quickly grow from small bases and Beijing must progressively find a balance between their ambitions and the protectionism sought by incumbents.