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China Southern to add 20 787-9s in first phase of refleeting as it prepares long-term hub strategy

Analysis

To Shenzhen, or not to Shenzhen? That is a question facing China Southern Airlines as it prepares its long term hub strategy: whether the Guangzhou-based airline should continue growing in the nearby city of Shenzhen, or should concentrate its southern hub exclusively in Guangzhou.

In the upcoming peak season Guangzhou will account for 85% of China Southern's long haul departures. That includes, for the first time, 20 intercontinental Guangzhou departures in a single day. Shenzhen is part of China Southern's catchment area, but Shenzhen Airlines and its majority owner Air China plan to expand in Shenzhen, and competition continues in nearby Hong Kong.

As China Southern weighs its Shenzhen presence, and awaits regulatory clarity on where it can grow at the new Beijing Daxing airport from 2019, the airline intends to take 20 787-9s in the compact period of 2018-2020. China Southern operates 10 -8s, while its sister company Xiamen Airlines is due to receive its first -9 in Dec-2016. China Southern's 787-9 order puts long haul aircraft back on order at Asia's largest airline. A later aircraft order will provide China Southern with post-2020 growth capacity.

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