CAPA World Aviation Yearbook 2013: Country, Airline data in a comprehensive 1,000 page report

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Section 1: Global Overview

Pursuing certainty in an uncertain world: A compelling, but ultimately dangerous strategy

Uncertainty has become the new normal - and risk reduction takes on a high priority for many airlines as Europe's economy stutters and the US struggles for traction.

Over recent months, certain words frequently recur in airline reports to describe their outlook for the market: "challenging", "volatile", "uncertainty" are among the most popular. These are understandably
in turn accompanied by corporate goals of enhancing the financial position and paying down debt, aligning capacity to demand, reducing costs and adopting more conservative fuel hedging positions, among others.

In these conditions, it is hard for a company to avoid adopting behaviour which is much more cautious and short-term reactive. Analysts and shareholders want restraint, in turn influencing share prices; executives, motivated by incentives issued by their boards, want to achieve share price targets; and in many ways the market simply leaves little option but to follow the herd.

Yet, aside from the lookalike profiles being created in this way, there are real dangers where all companies in an industry adopt the same approach….. (extracted from Section 1: Global Overview)

+ Global data sets
World's Top 50:
• Aviation countries
• Airports 
• Airlines

Two-page data summaries for each of the world's top 50 countries:
• Aircraft fleets and orders 

• Global alliance membership
• LCC market shares

Section 2: Regional Report: Africa

(Below: A sample of the data display from the Africa Regional Report)

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Africa is poised to be the next growth story as the world turns to the continent's bountiful resources, ranging from minerals to oil and water. An emerging middle class, with higher propensity to travel, will drive regional aviation as will the upswing in local and international tourism traffic.

Aviation on the continent is however beset by a range of impediments to growth including strong state protectionism leading to a lack of desire to liberalise air services, high taxes and charges, a poor safety record stemming from ageing aircraft, weak finances and inadequate regulatory supervision, under-developed infrastructure across most of the continent and a lack of professional expertise and wide-spread corruption.

All of this makes it difficult for airlines to remain sustainable and for fares, which are well above the world average, to reduce, even via the entry of LCCs.

But the potential upside from economic growth, which includes having seven of the world's 10 fastest growing economies, is attracting a new breed of carrier like fastjet, Starbow and African World which are prepared to take the shorter term risk for big long-term gains……..

Africa: Selected airlines

South African Airways .............................................pp.10

"South African Airways' future hinges on a new strategic plan and CEO"

Egyptair........................................................................pp.20

"Egyptair looks to expand its way out of intensive care in 2013"

Kenya Airways.............................................................pp.31


"Kenya Airways boosts China services, with new Etihad codeshare, but has political and economic risks"

Arik Air.........................................................................pp.43


"Arik Air has the funding and opportunity to grow in 2013, but faces further government interference"

Royal Air Maroc.........................................................pp.52


"Royal Air Maroc shows promising growth for 2013 with route and fleet expansion - but needs a friend"

Fastjet..........................................................................pp.62


"fastjet pushes ahead with African expansion in 2013, but faces protectionist hurdles"

Ethiopian Airlines......................................................pp.67


"Ethiopian Airlines expands its global footprint to link the world's high growth regions"

To download the Yearbook and Region sections, please click here

Section 3: Europe

The European airline market has a number of dividing lines. There is little growth on routes within the continent, but steady growth on long-haul. Most of the growth within Europe goes to low-cost carriers, while the major legacy groups restructure their short/medium-haul activities. The big Western countries see little or negative traffic growth, while the East enjoys a growth spurt .

On the other hand, the big Western airline groups continue to lead consolidation, while many in the East struggle to survive. Many legacy flag carriers post losses, while LCC profits grow. Among the LCCs, the two larger established players make record profits with relatively
slow traffic growth and the newer, smaller ones have less consistent profits but double-digit traffic growth. All these divides were clear in 2012 and will remain sharp in 2013.

IATA reported that European airlines saw passenger traffic (RPK) growth of 5.3% in 2012, driven by long-haul, while cargo traffic fell by 1.5%. Association of European Airlines (AEA) members' RPKs grew by 4.1%, although passenger numbers grew by only 2.2%. Members of the European Low Fares Airline Association (ELFAA) carried 7.2% more passenger than in 2011. 
In spite of this growth in passenger traffic, Eurocontrol reported that the number
of flights in Europe fell by 2.4% in 2012.
The apparent discrepancy is explained by a trend towards higher load factors, reflecting tight capacity control, and a higher average number of seats per aircraft. The latter point is explained by the superior growth of high seat density LCCs and of long-haul traffic.

Spain was the weakest major European market, with a 6.5% drop in the number of flights, and none of Europe's five biggest countries saw growth in flight numbers in 2012. By contrast, Turkey saw strong growth, followed by Norway, Poland and Ukraine.
This pattern of a decline in flights in Western Europe, but positive growth in Turkey and Central/Eastern Europe, is forecast to continue in 2013, albeit at a lesser rate (Eurocontrol forecasts total movements will fall by 1.3%).

On the other hand, the big Western airline groups continue to lead consolidation, while many in the East struggle to survive. Many legacy flag carriers post losses, while LCC profits grow. Among the LCCs, the two larger established players make record profits with relatively
slow traffic growth and the newer, smaller ones have less consistent profits but double-digit traffic growth. All these divides were clear in 2012 and will remain sharp in 2013.

IATA reported that European airlines saw passenger traffic (RPK) growth of 5.3% in 2012, driven by long-haul, while cargo traffic fell by 1.5%. Association of European Airlines (AEA) members' RPKs grew by 4.1%, although passenger numbers grew by only 2.2%. Members of the European Low Fares Airline Association (ELFAA) carried

The European airline market
has a number of dividing lines. There is little growth on routes within the continent, but steady growth on long-haul. Most of the growth within Europe goes to low-cost carriers, while the major legacy groups restructure their short/medium-haul activities. The big Western countries see little or negative traffic growth, while the East enjoys a growth spurt .......

Europe: Selected airlines

Lufthansa Group .......................................................pp.23

"Lufthansa: why being the best of the Big three is not good enough"

Air France-KLM ...........................................................pp.41


"Air France-KLM: why it must transform, as medium haul and cargo operations hurt the bottom line"

IAG..................................................................................pp.58


"IAG slips into losses, targets immediate bounce-back. But further austerity will be needed all round"

Turkish Airlines.........................................................pp.72


"Turkish Airlines' 2012 operating profit almost triples; 2013 more doubtful, with 20% seat growth"

Easyjet..........................................................................pp.88


"easyjet SWOT analysis - is Sir Stelios strength, weakness, opportunity and threat all in one?"

Virgin Atlantic Airways............................................pp.99


"Virgin Atlantic, the flying enigma - a great brand in need of greater financial discipline"

Airberlin......................................................................pp.112

"airberlin: in need of a cap that fits after another underlying loss"

Alitalia .........................................................................pp.128


"Alitalia battles for survival in 2013, again, despite operational improvements"

SAS .................................................................................pp.143


"SAS SWOT: final call to establish a sustainable Scandinavian Airlines"

Norwegian Air Shuttle.............................................pp.158

"Norwegian Air Shuttle: at a critical turning point"


Air Astana....................................................................pp.173


"Air Astana plans more rapid regional growth as Kazakhstan emerges as world's fastest growing market"

Tajik Air........................................................................pp.189


"Tajik Air faces increasing pressure as Somon Air expands and new start-up enters the domestic market"

To download the Yearbook and Region sections, please click here

Section 4: Latin America

Latin America's market has been characterised over the Last decade by rapid growth, consolidation and significantly improved profitability. 2012 saw more healthy growth in every major market and a key milestone with the completion of the LAN-TAM merger, which puts about one- third of the region's capacity in the hands of one very powerful airline group.

The establishment of new LAN and TAM parent LATAM Airlines Group is the biggest component of a massive consolidation trend which has also included the mergers of Avianca and TACA, Gol and Webjet, and Azul and TRIP. In addition, consolidation has come in the form of casualties as several Latin American carriers of all sizes have suspended operations in recent years, with Uruguay flag carrier Pluna and Bolivia's largest carrier Aerosur joining