CAPA launches CAPA Fleets, aircraft values and lease rates partnership with Oriel

Complimentary Values in Perspective report

Highlights of this special Launch edition report include:

• The values cycle: where are we now?
• Even the bad times are good: the fortunes of commercial aviation post-Lehmann crisis
• Are publically quoted lessors a barometer for commercial aircraft values?
• Latest insight from CAPA's Capacity Index

Get your free VIP report >>

Record airline fleet order backlog has winners & losers

The world's aviation sector ended 2013 with another record backlog for aircraft orders, as the highest ever number of annual orders added to what was already a record backlog. The number of outstanding orders is equivalent to almost half of the fleet in service. In a recent CAPA analysis, we examined aggregate orders data from the CAPA Fleet Database to highlight trends regarding the winners and losers by region, business model and aircraft category.

For a low margin industry, the challenge of financing all these orders remains significant. For decades, annual capital expenditure has almost always exceeded operating cash flow generated by the world's airlines. The industry has had to rely on ever more imaginative forms of external financing, demonstrating that, historically, this is a challenge to which they have risen.

To a large extent, many of the trends discernable when examining the order book have been clearly visible for some time. Analysis of aircraft delivery figures from the CAPA Fleet Database shows that, whereas North America received the highest number of new aircraft in 2003, Asia Pacific has been the leading region for deliveries since 2006. Since then, North America has been in third place, with Europe remaining the number two region for deliveries.

Moreover, North America saw an absolute reduction in the number of deliveries between 2003 and 2013. By contrast, Latin America saw the highest growth in the number of deliveries over this period, although it remains in fourth place in absolute numbers. Asia Pacific and the Middle East also experienced strong growth in deliveries from 2003 to 2013.

Digging further into the CAPA Fleet Database also confirms a number of other trends in aircraft deliveries between 2003 and 2013.

Highest/lowest growth region for narrowbody deliveries: Asia Pacific/Africa; and for widebodies: Middle East/Europe. Highest growth globally by aircraft category: widebodies. Highest growth in deliveries by business model: LCCs.

The shifting balance of regions, business models and aircraft categories

In summary, the main trends highlighted by this analysis of the CAPA Fleet Database include:

• The traditional dominance of North America and Europe has been broken by the emergence of Asia Pacific and the Middle East as powerful forces in world aviation.
• Latin America, while still relatively small in aviation terms, is also showing signs of growing dynamism, although Africa has yet to join the party.
• The superior growth of LCCs looks set to continue and long-haul low-cost looks to be embedding itself as a business model - while regional/commuter airlines represent a model in decline.
• Narrowbody aircraft continue to be the industry's work horse, although growth in deliveries has been outpaced by widebodies.

Learn more about Fleets by CAPA, with values by Oriel

The above analysis is supported by data and graphics available online via the CAPA Fleet Database.

Click here for more information about CAPA Fleets or contact us today for more information and to arrange your free tailored demonstration of CAPA Fleets, featuring values by Oriel.

Europe:
Mr Jamie Fairley
Phone: +44 1604 945868
Mobile: +44 7513 120489
jfairley@centreforaviation.com

Rest of the World:
Mr Jonathan Bond
Phone: +612 9241 3200
Mobile: + 614 0221 7609
jbond@centreforaviation.com