Visitor arrivals to Vietnam up 19% in Dec-2010
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Turbulence will hurt Southeast Asia’s airlines in 2017 as overcapacity bites
Southeast Asia is a region with enormous growth potential but a relatively cloudy outlook for airlines given the intense competition and overcapacity concerns.
Demand is on the rise, boosted by a growing middle class, rising discretionary incomes and relatively strong economies. Nearly every country in Southeast Asia continues to post GDP growth above the global average. The Philippines, Vietnam, Myanmar and Cambodia have been particularly strong with GDP growth in the high single digits.
However, GDP growth slowed to less than 5% in the rest of Southeast Asia in 2016 and is expected to only pick up slightly in 2017. In several Southeast Asian markets, capacity has been growing faster than demand, impacting yields as competition has intensified. With an order book that equals the size of the current active fleet and several airlines pursuing strategic expansion, capacity may again be added at a rate exceeding demand in 2017.
China’s role in international aviation – and tourism – in 2025. The CAPA-ACTE Global Summit
The CATA-ACTE Global Summit in Amsterdam explored some of the changes that will likely come to Chinese aviation and tourism by 2025. The viability of secondary markets has a mixed prognosis as British Airways exits Chengdu, but Vancouver airport expects sustainability from the secondary cities it is linked to – some of the first secondary routes from Chinese airlines.
Partnerships and joint ventures are expanding and becoming more pressing subjects. oneworld is without a mainland Chinese partner, while China Eastern is exploring partnerships outside its SkyTeam alliance: it has a JV with Qantas and a partnership with BA, but Delta's minority equity investment gives it footing. Partnerships will influence, or be preceded by, liberalisation – including eventual China-US open skies.
Although the Chinese outbound travel market is celebrated for its growth, a downturn can occur just as quickly. While visa liberalisation with Morocco has resulted in the country becoming a new popular market for Chinese visitors, terror attacks in France have reduced visitor growth not only in France but also in neighbouring countries, as visitors shun the region.