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Giovanni Bisignani, IATA's Director General and CEO Speech at IATA Annual General Meeting

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Numbers can tell powerful stories. USD10.4 billion (1) is the amount we lost last year. The ground shifted and our industry was shaken. Skyrocketing oil prices dominated the first half of 2008. Global recession was the story of the second half.

2009 will also see massive shifts. We expect the industry fuel bill to fall by USD59 billion (2). But rising oil prices anticipating recovery are a great risk. Greedy speculation must not hold the global economy hostage. Failure to act by governments would be irresponsible. On top of this, an even bigger negative number is on the horizon: USD80 billion (3).

That is the total revenue that will disappear with falling demand, collapsing yields, broken consumer confidence, and pandemic fears. The landscape is harsh. Airlines will lose USD9 billion (4) this year.

How long must we travel the desert of global recession? There is no modern precedent for today's economic meltdown. Cargo remains a good leading indicator. Its 23% freefall in December (5) was a clear sign that the global economy was collapsing. It has been stable at that level for five months.

This may be the bottom but recovery is different. Banks are still not able to finance business. US$1 trillion (6) is still needed to re-capitalize. Our customers don't have confidence. They need to reduce debt and that means less cash to spend. Business habits are changing and corporate travel budgets have been slashed. Video conferencing is now a stronger competitor.

Optimists see growth by the end of the year but pessimists view this as a mirage and expect an L-shaped recovery. I am a realist. I don't see facts to support optimism.

Our industry is in survival mode. Whether this crisis is long or short, the world is changing. Even if we try to look beyond the crisis we must recognize that it will not be business as usual. Change is critical. We must use this crisis as an opportunity for governments, partners and airlines to build a stronger industry.

Protecting globalization

The first challenge is to protect the engine of prosperity, the global village that we helped to build. Since 1950, the world's economy grew six fold, but world trade is 22 times bigger (8) . This engine of growth increased incomes and reduced poverty. With global trade everybody wins. But the forces of de-globalization are gathering strength and governments are taking protectionist decisions. World trade is already suffering with a 15% downturn (9), depressing economies everywhere. Replacing the global village with islands of isolation would be a step backwards. Protectionism is the enemy of global prosperity. In the 1930s (10), it prolonged the depression and it will not work today. To secure our future and build a strong global economy we must fight hard to keep the world trading.

Hope and Survival

We must also fight to adapt our businesses. We are a resilient industry as a result of our ability to change. Some amazing numbers quantify our achievements over the last decade. We have seen a 71% increase in labor productivity (11), a 20% gain in fuel efficiency (12) , and a 7-point improvement in load factors (13). Despite these great achievements we are now in survival mode. Without compromising safety, security or environmental responsibility, conserving cash and cutting costs are at the top of the agenda.

Your association understands your needs. We are keeping your money safe. IATA's financial systems handled USD350 billion last year (14). As airlines, agents and even banks failed, IATA did not miss a penny or a payment.

We helped airlines reduce costs by at least US$24 billion (15). This includes US$5 billion in fuel savings (16) and USD3.5 billion in charges, fees and taxes to name just two. We have aggressive targets for 2009: USD1.5 billion in charges, fees and taxes (17), at least USD2 billion in fuel savings, and a significant reduction in BSP and CASS unit rates (18).

We don't need a fortune teller or a magician to know that the assumptions of our past are no longer valid. After September 11, 2001, revenues fell by 7% (19). Almost immediately, we returned to growth that was fueled by strong economies. This time we face a 15% drop (20) with a global recession. It's a different world. Our future depends on drastic resizing and reshaping by governments, partners and airlines to be even safer, greener and profitable.

Strategies

Already some strategies are clear: Cash is king. Industry debt is high at US$170 billion (21) . But some of this has bought a US$70 billion cash cushion (22) that helped us avoid major bankruptcies. Partners help. Major mergers -- KLM-Air France, Lufthansa-Swiss, Delta-Northwest, JAL-JAS, Cathay Pacific-Dragonair -- created stronger competitors. Manage capacity. Our US colleagues cut quickly. As a result they are stronger. But international load factors are down 3 points (23). Each airline must make its own decision but we must all better match capacity to falling demand. Remember history. Once again aircraft ordered in good times are being delivered in recession. About 4,000 aircraft are scheduled for delivery over the next three years (24), which is 17% of the current fleet (25). Finding customers to fill them profitably will be a challenge.

Reshaping the Industry

There are many other challenges. Using them as opportunities, we must move the industry forward. The fall in revenues is an USD80 billion (26) case for change. Tightening belts is obvious. But the same product in a different size is not the answer. Shippers and travelers will expect greater value at reduced prices. The entire value chain must be involved in resizing and reshaping this industry.

Airlines have made a head start. IATA's Simplifying the Business program delivered USD4 billion in savings last year and offered a better product with e-ticketing and CUSS (27). Now we are targeting a further USD10 billion annual savings by improving baggage, travel processes and shipping (28). But resizing and reshaping is not just a problem for airlines. Our partners live on our revenues and they must follow the same approach.

For labor we cannot reshape without flexibility. This is not the time for salary increases. To protect jobs we must modernize work practices and we must all do more with less.

For our 60,000 travel agents, the clock cannot be turned back. Travel is more accessible than ever in price and purchase options. To survive in the global online market you need to reshape your services and your business models to provide greater value that travelers are willing to pay for.

Airlines expect the same from all suppliers and manufacturers. They must reshape their products to reduce their costs and ours. Look at the global distribution systems. We cannot accept that those in the West charge around US$4 per transaction when China TravelSky does the same job for US$0.50. This must change.

Now let me spend some time on one of my special subjects. 11% (29) of your revenues go to monopoly suppliers. Airlines pay over US$54 billion to airports and air navigation service providers. Some are sharing the burden of change. To name just two in this region, Malaysia Airports reduced charges by 50% for two years (30) and Singapore reduced charges by 25% (31) .

The growing list of partners delivering good results includes the air traffic control providers for Ireland, Bulgaria, and Vietnam and airports in Dallas/Fort Worth, Geneva and Thailand. These helped us to achieve cost savings of USD357 million last year (32). But now my special subject becomes your nightmare. The bill that you paid to happy monopoly suppliers grew by USD1.5 billion (33) last year. In the first six months of 2009 as the industry crisis worsened it grew by another USD1.5 billion (34). For the worst contributors to this increase we have a special place on the IATA Wall of Shame:

BAA and the UK CAA for London Heathrow's 86% increase (35) Delhi and Mumbai airports for their 207% increase (36)

Quiport in Ecuador for its 79% increase (37)ATNS (South Africa) for proposing a 44% increase (38)The Eurocontrol States of Denmark, The Netherlands and Poland for proposing charges increases between 27% and 32% (39)

What can I say? BASTA (Enough)! There is no room for this nonsense in our future. When demand drops, suppliers cannot divide the same costs among fewer customers. The shape of everything must change. This includes the comfortable position of our happy monopoly suppliers. I invite all of you to join me in a strong declaration from Kuala Lumpur to all of our partners contemplating increases. Once more, BASTA!

Environment


The biggest job in resizing and reshaping is our relationship with governments. It starts with climate change. Even in a recession, environment is at the top of our agenda. No other industry is as ambitious. Two years ago, I announced a vision to achieve carbon-neutral growth on the way to a carbon-free future. No other industry is as united. Our four-pillar strategy (40) focuses all industry players on addressing climate change together. And no other industry has achieved so much. Seven percent is how much our emissions will fall this year (41) . Five percent (42) from reduced capacity as a result of the recession and 2% (43) is a result of our strategy.

Look at our amazing work on biofuels. They have the potential to reduce our carbon footprint by up to 80% . IATA set a target of 10% alternative fuels by 2017 (45). Nobody thought it possible but four airlines have tested biofuels, making certification a reality by 2011 . But where are governments? Of the trillions of dollars in stimulus funds there is nothing on aviation biofuels.

The US is investing USD25 million in research (47) but it's peanuts. Governments are not providing the right incentives and oil companies who cashed USD48 billion in refinery margins from aviation (48) are not moving fast enough. Their investment in alternative fuels is also peanuts.

But if governments are too slow to invest they are too fast to tax. USD6.9 billion is what governments added to our tax bill (49) when everybody else was getting tax breaks.

Some governments are learning. The EUR 318 million Dutch tax cost the economy EUR 1.2 billion (50) but did nothing for the environment. The Dutch had the good sense to abolish it. I wish that I could say the same for the UK where Air Passenger Duty was increased to GBP 2.7 billion (51). It is unacceptable that money collected from our responsible industry in the name of the environment is being used by an irresponsible government to pay inflated MP expense claims or bail out banks.

We must look to the future. Both the aviation industry and governments want to improve environmental performance. It's an opportunity to work together. Our industry has made significant commitments with concrete targets. The first is to improve fuel efficiency by 1.5% (52) each year until 2020. But we recognize that improved fuel efficiency is not enough. Our emissions must stop growing.

Yesterday our Board took a landmark decision. By 2020, the airline industry will achieve carbon neutral growth (53). Demand will continue to increase but any expansion of our carbon footprint will be compensated.

We can be proud. Airlines are the first global industry to make such a bold commitment. But we cannot do it alone. ICAO must define binding carbon emissions standards for manufacturers. Air navigation service providers must make it possible to fly even more effectively. Fuel companies must supply eco-friendly fuels and governments must give us access to credits in global carbon markets.

To manage this global sectoral approach (54) , we must account for emissions at a global level, not by state. IATA will work with ICAO to ensure compliance. Airlines should get carbon credits for every cent they pay whether in taxes, charges or emissions trading scheme payments. We should pay only once, not several times.

With our commitments and a strong vision we can be proud of going farther and faster than any other industry. We are showing the way with carbon neutral growth. The industry is a role model for others to follow. The challenge will be for governments to catch up.

Governments-The Bigger Relationship

Reshaping the approach to climate change is only the start. Our relationship with governments must move from punitive micro-regulation to joint problem solving. Governments must understand that we can help them protect their citizens, improve efficiency, save jobs, and support economic growth, but only if we work together.

Governments want to protect their citizens. We can help, but we need better coordination. US$5.9 billion is the airline security bill (55). We must spend our money more wisely focusing on the threats, not the 99.9% of our passengers who are not a risk. One-stop security must be the future (56) . Europe is moving quickly in this direction for intra-European flights. France was the latest to join (57) this initiative. Why don't all governments take the same approach so that the million passengers a day (58) who make connections are not checked twice? The time has come for harmonization and mutual recognition of standards.

Governments want to reduce delays. We can help but we need efficient infrastructure. Slot auctions and legislation on passenger rights are not the solution. The trillions in stimulus monies are a great opportunity to improve infrastructure. Airlines are already investing billions of dollars for advanced avionics. After decades of talks, a Single European Sky (59) is closer than ever. I hope that President Obama can make NextGen a reality (60) . Combined, these programs can save 41 million tonnes of CO2 and over USD21 billion (61), but only if governments deliver.

Governments want to protect jobs and stimulate the economy. We can help but we need basic commercial freedoms to run our businesses. Look at how other industries are dealing with the crisis. Banks are getting capital not just from bailouts but also from international markets. Chrysler's cross-border partnership with Fiat is building a new future for both.

Let me be clear. We don't want bailouts. All we want is access to global capital, but old rules (62) stand in the way of a healthier industry. If we cannot pay the bills, saving the flag on the tail will not save jobs. A prolonged recession could lead to a cash crisis. This would put at risk 32 million jobs (63) and the lifeblood of the global economy.

What is the opportunity for our future? Progressive liberalization. It would be a cheap and effective stimulus. When it started in the US, it made travel accessible. When Europe liberalized, 1.4 million jobs were created (64). Liberalizing key routes today would create 24 million jobs and US$490 billion in economic activity (65) .

The logical next step is for the US and Europe to expand Open Skies to Open Aviation (66). The new administrations in the US and the next European Commission must not miss a great opportunity. An agreement would strengthen their industries and send a strong signal of change beyond their borders. Access to markets and capital is critical to all of our businesses. Later this year, IATA's Agenda for Freedom will deliver an important policy tool, with governments signing a multilateral statement of policy principles.

For our industry with US$48 billion (67) in losses since 2001 the time for change is now. Governments must understand that the survival of the industry is at risk. They must deliver normal commercial freedoms urgently and effectively.

Safety

In a changing world one aspect of our business is rock solid. That is our commitment to safety. Last week's tragedy over the South Atlantic reminded us all that safety is a constant challenge. Last year, our industry had an amazing achievement. We flew 2.2 billion people safely (68) . Our goal must always be to do even better: zero accidents, zero fatalities. In 2006, this assembly took an historic decision. You made IOSA (69) a condition of membership. Our goal was to raise the bar on safety in every corner of the planet. We set targets and we worked with airlines from North Korea to Africa and Latin America (70) . With your commitment and your hard work we are a quality association. We have a great number to celebrate: 226. That is the number of IATA member airlines and all are on the IOSA registry (71). Congratulations to everybody.

Conclusion

We are a responsible industry in good times and in crisis. Today's situation is unprecedented, the most difficult ever. Governments and partners must understand that we are struggling to survive with a new and harsh reality. We are, however, resilient and capable of great change. Together we must turn challenges into opportunities to be safer, greener and profitable.

(1) The industry net loss for 2008 was USD10.4 billion (-2.0% margin), and 2008 operating profit was USD1.5 billion. For 2007, the net profit was USD12.9 billion (2.5% margin) and operating profit was USD19.7 billion.
(2) 2009 industry fuel bill will be USD106 billion versus 2008 industry fuel bill of USD165 billion.
(3) IATA forecasts total industry revenues of US$448 billion in 2009. This is US$80 billion (-15%) less than the US$528 billion recorded in 2008.

(4) IATA forecasts 2009 industry losses of USD9 billion (-2.0% margin), with an operating loss of US$1.7 billion.

This would be the first operating loss since 2003 when the industry recorded an operating loss of USD1.4 billion and a net loss of USD7.5 billion.

(5) 22.6% rounded. Air cargo ships 35% of the value of goods traded internationally and is a leading economic indicator. Cargo traffic started its descent in June 2008. Since December 2008monthly international cargo volumes have stabilized albeit at levels -20% lower than the previous year.(6) Global Financial Stability Report, April 2009.

(7) Source: Philippe Legrain, WTO special advisor, 2002, Open World: The Truth About Globalization(8) Philippe Legrain(9) Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CBP)(10) The Smoot-Hawley Tariffs led to a 70% fall in US imports between 1929 and 1932. Even by 1948, global trade had only recovered to 1913 levels.
(11) Source: IATA. Increase in tonne kilometers performed (TKP) per employee 1998-2008


(12) Source: IATA. Fall in fuel used per TKP 1998-2008
(13) Source: IATA. Passenger load factor, RPKs as a percent of ASKs 1998-2008
(14) That total is comprised of IATA Clearing House (USD50 billion), IATA Currency Clearance Service (USD30.5 billion), Billing and Settlement Plan (USD240 billion), Cargo Account Settlement Systems (USD28 billion), other (USD1.5 billion)
(15) USD3 billion from ET, USD1 billion from CUSS, USD5 billion from fuel savings, USD3.5 billion in user charges, taxes and fuel fees, US$70 million with IOSA, US$12 billion by fighting off US Visit

(16) IATA's Green Teams in 2008 identified savings of US$3.7 billion at 74 airlines. IATA worked with air navigation service providers for 214 more direct routings and better terminal area management at 103 airports for savings of USD1.3 billion

(17) IATA's work on charges, fees and taxation with major airports, ANSPs, fuel suppliers, and governments delivered USD1.6 billion in real cost reductions and USD1.9 billion in potential cost increases that were avoided

(18) IATA's target is to reduce BSP unit cost by 10% and CASS unit costs by 15%. IATA's BSP is a system designed to facilitate the selling, reporting and remitting procedures of IATA Accredited Passenger Sales Agents, as well as improve financial control and cash flow of participating airlines. It operates in some 160 countries and territories. In 2008 IATA's BSP processed USD240 billion.

Similarly the IATA Cargo Account Settlement Systems (CASS) is designed to simplify the billing and settling of accounts between airlines and freight forwarders. Some 78 CASS operations worldwide handled US$28 billion in 2008

(19) Industry revenues were USD329 billion in 2000, USD307 billion in 2001 and USD306 billion in 2002(20) Industry revenue in 2008 was USD528 billion. IATA's 2009 forecast for industry revenues is USD448 billion(21) Source: IATA(22) In 2000, the industry cash position was estimated at USD30 billion, which is 9% of revenues compared to the current 13%

(23) For the January-April 2009 period, load factors were down 2.9 percentage points compared to January-April 2008(24) Source: Ascend. Includes all aircraft (jet and turbo-prop) delivered to airlines and leasing companies.

(25) As of April 2009 there were 23,900 jet and turbo-prop aircraft operational in airline fleets.
(26) In 2008 industry revenues were US$528 billion. In 2009 IATA forecasts industry revenues of US$448 billion.

(27) CUSS is Common Use Self Service kiosks. Note US$3 billion from ET, USD1 billion from kiosks (calculated at 40% market penetration)

(28) IATA e-freight (USD4.9 billion), Fast Travel (USD1.6 billion), Bar Coded Boarding Passes (US$1.5 billion), Baggage Management Improvement Program (USD1.9 billion)

(29) Most recent data from ICAO and Airport Council International show that airport/ANSP charges paid by airlines and their passengers were USD54.2 billion in 2007. In the same year industry revenues were USD509 billion.

(30) The Malaysian government announced on 10 March 2009 a two-year 50% rebate for landing charges effective 1 April. This initiative is expected to save the industry some USD53 million


(31) CAAS has implemented a 25% landing fee and additional rental discounts for 2009 as part of its Air Hub Development Fund initiative to support aviation. This rebate is greater than the 15% discount that was in place for the past 3 years


(35) Approved increase by the regulator (CAA) for 2008-2013
(36) Both Delhi and Mumbai increased charges by 10% in early 2009 and introduced new airport development fees. For Delhi this was the equivalent of a 137% increase in charges, while in Mumbai this was a 278% increase. 207% is the average of the two
(37) Charges increased since 2005 to pre-finance a new airport that might never be used


(38) For 2010/2011(39) IATA calculations based on provisional figures released in June by the Eurocontrol states for 2010 cost bases and unit rates


(40) IATA developed a four-pillar strategy is based on: investment in technology, effective operations, efficient infrastructure and positive economic measures. It was endorsed by the 179 states attending the 2007 ICAO Assembly and was made a commitment by the CEOs of GE, CFM, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls Royce, Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, Embraer, as well as IATA, ATAG, ACI and CANSO at the 2008 Aviation and Environment Summit in Geneva


(41) 2008 emissions are estimated at 666 million tonnes and 2009 forecast is 623 million tonnes. This is 6.5% (rounded to 7%). This is revised from earlier estimates of an 8% reduction as capacity adjustments have not been as deep as previously anticipated


(42) 4.7% rounded
(43) 1.8% rounded. This is unchanged from earlier estimates
(44) Projections based on the use of second or new generation biofuels produced from biomass such as jatropha, algae etc, that do not compete with food crops for fresh water or land and offer net carbon reductions over their life cycle of up to 80%
(45) Biofuels currently being tested are drop-in fuels that can be used in current engines and can be mixed with traditional jet fuel.

If certification occurs in 2010 or 2011 and production is then ramped up, this ambitious target is realizable. Certification is a critical step in moving from testing to commercial production.

(46) Virgin Atlantic flew a Boeing 747-400 on 23 February 2008 with one engine operating on a 20% biofuel mix of babassu oil and coconut oil. Air New Zealand flew a Boeing 747-400 with one engine on 50% jatropha derived biofuel and 50% kerosene on 30 December 2008.

Continental Airlines flew a Boeing 737-800 with one engine using 50% jet fuel and 50% algae and jatropha mix on 7 January 2009. JAL flew a 50% bio-fuel (camelina, jatropha and algae) and 50% kerosene mix on a Boeing 747-300 with P&W engines on 30-Jan-2009

(47) In Feb-2009, the U.S. Departments of Energy and Agriculture released up to $25 million in funding for research and development of biofuels, including aviation biofuels. This is part of the 2008 Farm Bill.


(48) Amount represents the difference between cost of crude oil and the cost of jet fuel multiplied by the amount of fuel used by the industry in 2008
(49) Source: IATA. Tax increases are calculated based on their impact from implementation in 2008 to 2012
(50) Source: SEO Economic Research conducted a study commissioned by the Dutch Association of Travel Agents ANVR on the effects of the Dutch ticket tax. The study found total financial damage to the Dutch Economy was EUR1.2-1.3 billion, EUR90 million for airports, EUR940 million for airlines operating from Dutch airports, lost tourism income of EUR 83 million and Dutch travel agencies and tour operators lost revenue of EUR120 million-300 million

(51) New APD "bands" that come into force in November 2009 will raise GBP2.46 bn (US$3.7 bn) and will implement a ticket tax ranging from GBP11 to GBP110 depending on the distance and class traveled from London. A second increase is set for November 2010, bringing the duty to between GBP12 and GBP170, again depending on distance and class traveled. This increased passenger tax will cost the airlines and their passengers GBP2.72 billion (USD4.1 billion) annually (52) Average per year. IATA submission to the ICAO Group on International Aviation and Climate Change (GIACC) Fourth Meeting 25 to 27 May 2009, Montreal.

(53) Carbon neutral growth (CNG) means that aviation emissions will cease to grow in absolute terms. Achievement of CNG enables the industry to grow without increasing its carbon footprint. The next step after achieving CNG would be a steady reduction in overall emissions

(54) The Kyoto Protocol did not include international aviation in national targets, due to the special nature of international business. The Protocol states that aviation is not included in national targets and requires a global policy framework and an approach that holds aviation accountable as a sector under the leadership of ICAO working with the UNFCCC

(55) Based on IATA survey of member airlines and their security costs the USD5.9 billion cost of security includes USD2.4 billion (38%) per year on fraud and theft prevention, audits, emergency planning, USD1.6 billion (27.5%) on passenger operations security and USD1.2 billion (20%) on aircraft protection


(56) One-stop security is a system based on the mutual recognition of security measures by governments where they agree that transfer passengers do not need to be rescreened if they have been adequately screened at their airport of departure.

(57) Majority of EU states have implemented one-stop security with the exception of the U.K. and Ireland

(58) 325 million was calculated based on airline passenger data from 20 largest hub airports in each of the six major regions of the world. Source: SRS Analyser

(59) Single European Sky is a project to overhaul the European airspace to make it more efficient.
(60) US FAA's Next Generation project is a wide-ranging transformation of the entire national air transportation system. One of the goals is to move away from ground-based surveillance and navigation to satellite-based systems and procedures.

(61) It is estimated that by 2030, NextGen could be delivering carbon savings of 27 million tonnes a year, while Single European Sky would be delivering 14 million tonnes of savings. With jet fuel USD90 per barrel (USD72 for oil), the combined potential savings on the fuel bill would be USD21.7 billion (USD12.9 billion from Next Gen and USD8.8 billion for Single European Sky. These calculations are from the IATA Aviation Carbon Model with a traffic growth assumption of 5% per annum

(62) Example includes government foreign ownership restrictions that cap foreign investment in airlines to 25% stake

(63) In addition to supporting 32 million jobs, air transport supports USD3.5 trillion in economic activity. Source: Air Transport Action Group (ATAG) report on the Social & Economic Benefits of Air Transport (2007)

(64) Economic Impact of Air Service Liberalization (Boeing/Intervistas) 2006
(65) Economic Impact of Air Service Liberalization (Boeing/Intervistas) 2006

(66) Open aviation is characterized by the free flow of capital, no ownership restrictions, safety oversight by national authorities and regulatory convergence
(67) Includes losses from 2001 through 2008 and IATA projections for 2009

(68) Source: IATA Economics(69) IOSA is IATA Operational Safety Audit. The audit was established at the 2003 AGM (Washington). In 2006 a resolution of the Paris AGM made IOSA a requirement of IATA membership with effect from 1 January 2009 with a 90-day grace period. To retain IATA membership, airlines had to be included on the IOSA registry by 31-Apr-2009

(70) Partnership for Safety (PfS) was fully funded by IATA (USD3 million). Over three years more than 180 airlines participated in PfS awareness seminars, including 100 IATA members. Of those 73 airlines underwent gap analyses, including 59 IATA members, and 25 member airlines in Africa participated in post-gap training with the assistance of the International Airline Training Fund (IATF)

(71) IOSA is available to all airlines. In total 314 airlines are on the IOSA registry, 226 IATA member airlines and 88 non-member airline. Nine nations including Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica, Egypt, Madagascar, Mexico, Panama, Turkey and Syria have mandated IOSA