25-Sep-2013 5:31 PM

COMAC forecasts global RPKs to rise by 4.6%, fleet to rise by 3.6% over next 20-years

Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC) released (25-Sep-2013) its fourth civil aircraft market forecast report for the global and China civil aviation aircraft market over the next 20 years (2013 to 2032). The manufacturer forecasts global air passenger traffic (RPKs) to increase by average 4.9% p/a while global fleet will increase by 3.6% p/a over the next 20 years. In the 50-seat and above market, COMAC estimates there will be 33,107 new deliveries globally, including 4346 turbofan regional aircraft of the same model as the ARJ21-700s, 21,200 single aisle aircraft of the same model as the C919s and 7500 twin aisle aircraft, with a value of more than USD4 trillion (USD4.2 trillion calculated in accordance with the list price of the aircraft in 2013). By 2032, COMAC estimates the global fleet will be twice as much as current global fleet size of 18,615 aircraft, reaching 37,896 aircraft. Among the global regional markets, Asia Pacific region (including China) is expected to be the fastest growing market, accounting for 36% of the global fleet by 2032, up from the 26%. Also by 2032, Asia market will have the largest single-aisle fleet with a 37% share of the single aisle fleet market, up from 27%. The Chinese manufacturer also forecasts China's total RPK will account for 16% of global RPK by 2032, etching closer to the whole of North America market. China's passenger traffic will increase by 7.2% p/a, boosted by large-scale infrastructure construction and civil aviation industry development. China's fleet will increase from 1969 in 2012 to 6494 by 2032, with a 17% share of the global fleet, up from 11%. In the 50-seats and above market, China will take delivery of 5357 aircraft over the next 20 years, including 3602 single aisle aircraft and 1029 twin aisle aircraft. [more- original PR - Chinese]

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