India domestic passenger traffic will grow (23-May-2012) by 8-10% in FY2012/13 and more likely towards the lower end of the range, according to the CAPA India Outlook 2012/13. The reported noted, "Much will depend upon the impact of oil prices and other input costs on airfares. Upside growth is limited by the fact that capacity expansion will be measured, and with load factors already quite strong there is limited opportunity to grow traffic through higher occupancies". In FY2012/13 Indian carriers are expected to add approximately 24 aircraft during the year, which includes eight Q400s to be inducted by SpiceJet. This corresponds to the equivalent of 20 narrowbody aircraft on domestic routes. CAPA estimates this which would result in capacity growth of 7-8% in a best case scenario. This projection does not take into account the possibility of exceptional events such as a scenario involving further capacity reduction by Kingfisher Airlines or where Air India’s operations are severely impacted by industrial action. [more – CAPA India Outlook Report]
CAPA expects India domestic capacity growth of 7-8%, traffic growth of 8-10% in FY2012/13
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Most of the faster growing airline groups in the top 20 are LCCs and the main growth drivers for Europe's big three legacy groups are their LCC subsidiaries. Just outside the top 20 are some fast growing legacy airlines in Eastern Europe, demonstrating the potential there. Nevertheless, unless there is a big merger or acquisition, Ryanair looks set to remain at number one for some time.
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Norwegian also plans to add non-US destinations to its UK long haul network, with details expected during the course of 2017. Norwegian's flexibility to develop its long haul operations from the UK would be improved by the grant of a US foreign carrier permit to its UK-registered subsidiary, Norwegian Air UK.
Norwegian has had to surmount many obstacles to build and grow its global network – which may also include Latin America in 2017, when it will accelerate long haul ASK growth to 60%. However its rapid expansion, currently driven mainly by long haul growth, has led to a rapid increase in debt, and is likely to weigh on unit revenue. Norwegian's undoubted strategic innovation can only be sustained if it is financially successful.