Boeing released (11-Jun-2013) its 20-year Current Market Outlook for 2013-2032, projecting demand for more than 35,000 new aircraft over the period, valued at USD4.8 trillion. The forecast is based on the assumption that passenger traffic and cargo traffic are expected to grow 5% p/a. The narrowbody aircraft market is the main driver of the forecast and continues to show strength, with 24,670 new aircraft projected for the segment due to the growth of low-cost carriers and airlines from emerging markets. Widebodies will be needed, fueled in part by airlines replacing their older fleet with new, more fuel-efficient airplanes. The market for new airplanes will continue to become more geographically balanced over the next two decades. Asia-Pacific, including China, will lead the way in total airplane deliveries.
- Forecast by aircraft type:
- Regional jets (90 seats or less): 2020, USD80 billion market value;
- Narrowbody (90-230 seats): 24,670, USD2,290 billion;
- Small widebody (200-300 seats): 4530, USD1,100 billion;
- Mid-sized widebody (300-400 seats): 3300, USD1,090 billion;
- Large widebody (400+ seats): 760, USD280 billion.
- Forecast by region:
Boeing: "This forecast gives us confidence as we increase our production rates and invest in new products like the 777X and 787-10X. Airlines are demanding more efficiency and that is exactly what we'll be giving them," Randy Tinseth, VP of marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. Source: Boeing: 11-Jun-2013.