14-Jun-2013 9:46 AM
Avolon forecasts Boeing will deliver more aircraft than Airbus over the next 20 years
Avolon released (13-Jun-2013) its 2013 20-year 'World Fleet Forecast'. Avolon expects almost 36,000 aircraft to be delivered over the next 20 years, increasing the global commercial airline fleet to 43,000 aircraft.
Forecast assumptions (20-year growth rates):
- GDP: 3.1%;
- RPKs: 5.2%;
- ASKs: 5.1%;
- Cargo traffic: 5.6%;
- Fleet size: 3.3%;
- Fuel burn per ASKs: -1.3%.
Fleet forecast:
- New deliveries: 35,700;
- Passenger aircraft: 34,700;
- Freighter aircraft: 1000;
- Freighter conversions: 1700.
Type breakdown:
- Regional jets (<100 seats): 1000
- Narrowbodies (100-210 seat): 24900;
- Intermediate widebodies: 5300;
- Large widebodies: 2200;
- Widebody freighters: 1000.
Deliveries by manufacturer:
Fleet retirements:
- Total retirements: 15,300
- Passenger aircraft: 13,400;
- Freighter aircraft: 1900;
Fleet size:
- Passenger aircraft: 20,400 (2012) increasing to 42,800 (2032);
- Freighter fleet: 1900 increasing to 2800
Aircraft financing cost: USD3.5 trillion.
- Average annual aircraft financing cost: USD125 billion.
- Narrowbodies: 46% of financing;
- Widebodies: 45%;
- Widebody freighters: 6%;
- Regional jets: 3%. [more - original PR]