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IATA: Oil is the wild card - Fuel Watch

IATA Director General and CEO, Giovanni Bisignanni, labelled oil prices as the “wild-card” for airlines this year, even as it has halved its forecast for industry losses in 2010 from USD5.6 billion to USD2.8 billion.

As economic recovery continues and conditions improve, the price of oil has gradually climbed, maintaining prices above USD80 per barrel this week. IATA has raised its expected average oil price for 2010 to USD79 per barrel, up from the previous forecast, made in Dec-2009, of US75 per barrel.

This USD4 per barrel increase, along with increasing airline activity, as global passenger numbers are expected to increase 5.6% in 2010, is expected to raise the airline industry fuel bill to USD132 billion. This is an increase of USD19 billion over 2009 levels, and lifts fuel’s share of total operating costs to 26%, up from 24% in 2009.

Oil stays at USD80 per barrel

Oil prices breached USD80 per barrel this week and stayed firmly above this level, finishing the week to 09-Mar-2010 2.4% higher, at USD81.50 per barrel.

WTI spot price: Feb-2009 to Feb-2010

Jet fuel prices (cents per gallon) remain above USD200 cents on all markets. New York Harbour and Singapore prices saw the strongest gains, up 2.4% and 3.1% respectively. Other markets were slightly more subdued, with some prices falling marginally on 09-Mar-2010. Amsterdam prices were up gained 1.9% for the week period, while Los Angeles prices gained 0.9% and US Gulf Coast prices rose 0.9%, falling 1.5 cents on 09-Mar-2010.

Daily jet fuel prices (kerosene, cents per gallon) at New York, US Gulf Coast, Los Angeles, Amsterdam, Singapore: Jun-2009 to Mar-2010

Daily jet fuel prices (kerosene, cents per gallon) at New York, US Gulf Coast, Los Angeles, Amsterdam, Singapore vs Crude Spot price (WTI, USD per barrel): 23-Feb-2010 to 02-Mar-2010

 

02-Mar-10

03-Mar-10

04-Mar-10

05-Mar-10

08-Mar-10

09-Mar-10

one week Change

12 month Change

New York Harbor

209.49

216.88

214.4

217.38

217.45

214.42

2.4%

72.0%

U.S. Gulf Coast

207.72

211.53

209.1

211.61

211.13

209.67

0.9%

75.6%

Los Angeles

209.72

214.53

210.6

213.98

213.38

211.92

1.0%

73.5%

Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp

207.43

211.51

210.15

212.64

212.94

211.43

1.9%

72.4%

Singapore

202.02

204.29

205.12

205.6

208.57

208.21

3.1%

80.0%

WTI Spot*

79.62

80.91

80.21

81.5

81.85

81.5

2.4%

73.4%

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