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Recorded at CAPA Live March

Critical Thinkers - Leading an airline in 2021

Being an airline industry leader has never been more challenging. Billions gone, Traffic wiped out. Quarantines everywhere. Cancellations policies, advance booking restrictions, often waived. Yet, with new vaccines, pent-up demand promises a fresh start. But are governments and industry ready for take off?   

In this session, senior leaders from Europe, the United States, and Latin America discuss:

  • What is the role of governments in ensuring a strong, healthy, competitive airline industry? 

  • How will joint business agreements and alliances evolve? 

  • Will different regions restart more quickly?

  • What are the keys to not only survive, but thrive to innovate and adapt to a new world order? 

  • Are airlines up to the challenges of sustainability, diversity, and innovation?

  • How has COVID-19 impacted processes within airline management?

  • How has the additional focus of staff and passenger safety changed the way airlines are run?

  • What will recovery look like? 

Moderator: International Aviation Law, Principal, Kenneth Quinn

Panel

  • American Airlines, Vice President/Head Regulatory & International Affairs, Molly Wilkinson

  • ALTA, Executive Director & CEO, José Ricardo Botelho

  • KLM Royal Dutch Airlines, SVP, Corporate Centre and General Counsel, Barbara van Koppen

CAPA Live is the most sought-after monthly global aviation event. Taking place on the second Wednesday of each month, thousands of industry colleagues from across the globe tune in for their monthly dose of aviation and travel news, analysis, and in-depth interviews with industry leaders. Register here to be part of our growing community. 

Transcript

Ken Quinn:

Hey everybody. It's Ken Quinn. I'm general counsel of Flight Safety Foundation, and Principal of International Aviation Law PLLC. I'm sitting here in McLean, Virginia in my home because so many of us can't travel, but I'm really excited about this next version of CAPA Live, Wednesday, March 10th. We are very blessed and honored to have with us three very distinguished senior folks in the international airline industry.

First off is Barbara van Koppen. She's a senior vice president, corporate center and long time general counsel of KLM, Royal Dutch airlines. I think she's been with the airline about 19 years or so. Barbara, is that right? You've got a huge collection of those little ceramic Dutch houses somewhere.

Barbara van Koppen:

I do. I do. Yeah. Many, many, many.

Ken Quinn:

But you're on the executive committee. You've been corporate secretary. You're in charge of the sustainability issues among others. So we're just pleased to have you from Amsterdam.

Molly Wilkinson is here with us. Vice-president. She's had also regulatory and international affairs globally for American Airlines. She's been there for about three years and before that was a lot of executive roles in the financial services industry, had been on the Senate Homeland Security Committee on the minority side. And before that, I think Molly, you were with the George W. Bush, so 43 as I like to call it, and I was in 41, working at DOD, spent a little bit of a delightful time in Baghdad, I understand. I'd love to hear about that at some point, in the small business administration, so as a political appointee in the George W. Bush administration, Molly, we're thrilled to have you here.

And we also have representing Latin America, then, Jose Ricardo Botelho, who is the executive director and the chief executive officer of ALTA. As those of you watching no doubt know, that's the Latin American and Caribbean Air Transport Association. He's steeped in aviation and also in his ministry of justice in Brazil. He was director of ANAC, the national civil aviation authority, Brazil, also spent some time as an alternate rep to ICAO.

So welcome all. As my mother would say, I'm tickled pink that you're here joining. So let's talk first about environmental sustainability, because that's what this month is focusing on, but I want to get into some other areas in terms of profitability and COVID relief. But a lot of talk about how everyone's going to be environmentally sustainable. We're going to de-carbonization in aviation, some are saying that's zero by 2040, like FedEx, others are saying net zero emissions by 2050. Jose Ricardo is this realistic?

Jose Ricardo Botelho:

Hi. Hi. Hi everyone. It's a great pleasure to be here with you. Thank you for this invitation. Yes, yes [inaudible 00:03:21] this is possible would be. I would say that this is possible because this subject is something that our industry actually is taking very seriously. Since 2009, when we set some goals, we had some short-term goals, mid-term goals, and long-term goals, and the way that we see right now is that for the midterm goal or short-term goal, we are all set. For the midterm, we are running on that. For the long term that is actually trying to get this 2050, I would say that this is possible and the industry is doing everything that is possible. But you have to keep in mind that it's something that's not dependent just on the industry, but also of the government, the industry. I mean, the government support is of course, so-

Ken Quinn:

Wait a minute. How are we going to get there, for a no carbon or low carbon approach? Because a lot of environmentalists will say, like Greenpeace, they say airlines and oil companies, they love talking about carbon neutral, they love talking about carbon offsetting, but to be serious about climate change, you need to stop carbon emissions from getting into the atmosphere in the first place. How do you respond to that?

Jose Ricardo Botelho:

Yeah, I would say that we cannot stop that. We cannot stop the process, but we're doing the process. So the SAF is there to prove that the industry is doing something. If we see at the last meeting of ICAO, we had a resolution, what was a commitment with the government and also messages to the industry that we should develop some technology to do that. And also they are there. And since 2016, if I'm not wrong, we're talking about more than 300,000 flights with SAF, for example. So I'd say that-

Ken Quinn:

That's not really-

Jose Ricardo Botelho:

I understand the point. Yeah. I understand the point [crosstalk 00:05:21]

Ken Quinn:

Sustainable aviation fuels. But Barbara, how do we get there?

Barbara van Koppen:

Well, I think that talking for KLM, maybe, I think that our transition strategy for the short to medium term is built on two important pillars that is to reduce and to replace. And with reduce I mean that that's the entry into service of new aircraft, which on a general note are more fuel efficient, and hence less emitting CO2. So that's a very important element in our strategy. And next to that, for the short to medium term, we're pretty much focusing on stepping up the use of sustainable aviation fuels. So for the short to medium term, these are really and truly helping and addressing and reducing CO2 emissions.

At the same time, we also need to look at the longer term where we certainly need new technologies that will help and enable to further reduce emissions. And I'd like to refer to our support of the Flying-V initiative, which is a truly science-fiction aircraft, and which is trying to implement or bring into service at a certain moment in time an aircraft which is over 20% CO2 efficient task. So it's emitting 20% less CO2 into the atmosphere. And these breakthroughs really are for the longer term. Same goes for electric aircraft and technologies alike. And for the time we do not yet have all the elements in place for reduction or [inaudible 00:07:14]. Compensation obviously will remain part of the programs as well.

Ken Quinn:

But you've been experimenting, right? You did a flight, I think, from Amsterdam to Madrid recently using some kind of alternative fuels?

Barbara van Koppen:

Yeah.

Ken Quinn:

You've also looked at biofuels as I understand it. How is that going?

Barbara van Koppen:

Yeah, we operated just 500 liters on a flight to Madrid. It was a cooperation with Shell who produced the synthetic fuel for this initiative. And it was actually at the initiative also of the Dutch Ministry of Infrastructure. And together, what we wanted to demonstrate is that even to fly on synthetic fuels as an alternative over the, call it, regular biofuels, is also possible. What is hampering today is the lack of prediction capacity, to really scale up production of sustainable aviation fuels, and next to that for the more traditional SAFs. Also, sustainable feedstock is a challenge and is likely to become even more a challenge in the near future, because we should not solve one problem with creating another problem. So sustainability of feedstock is truly an issue that needs to be addressed in a good and sustainable manner.

Ken Quinn:

Okay. Jose Ricardo, does all this effort toward a net zero carbon mean that we're looking at the demise of a wide body aircraft in terms, certainly those was four engines on them, but we're not going to see the A380, we're not going to see the B747s, we're not going to see 767s. We're really looking at two engines on triple sevens, maybe even the A330. I mean, how is this going to play out in terms of what your members are doing on their fleet replacement? And of course who can afford it now, too? It's coming at a tough time.

Barbara van Koppen:

Yeah. I believe that when we're talking about this [inaudible 00:09:11], when we talk about this environment situation and you have this SAF right there, I believe that the future is there, and you have to find a way to change all that. So as far as the data that we have is that our members, they are doing some changes in the fleet in order to get what we need actually in our regions to achieve our commitment with this sustainability process. So it's hard to predict everything. And what happened in our industry, the way that we see right now is that actually we are in... This is the point of no return. The SAF is there, so we have to find a way to do something because you have this commitment with the ICAO as an industry. So I believe that we are going to change little by little until we achieve what is necessary.

Ken Quinn:

Is that a problem? The little by little approach isn't perhaps, from the environmentalist's perspective, getting us where we need to be, and a lot of them want to engage in carbon offset programs and market-based schemes to make sure that there's a price to be paid for emitting carbon. Barbara, is that something that is fair to say, and KLM needs to think about?

Barbara van Koppen:

Like I said before, focus will be... The best way to move forward is to implement those measures, actions that truly contribute to fewer CO2 emissions. So in that respect fleet renewal and the use of SAF are simply key for our future strategy. To the extent we need to do more and other sources are yet not available. Carbon offset programs come into play or market-based [inaudible 00:11:22], but at the end of the day, they will help you offset your emissions, but not necessarily reducing your emissions. And what we should try to avoid as an industry, but not only as an industry, but also governments who try to avoid is to just impose or introduce straightforward taxes that will not contribute at all to make aviation more sustainable. So that's something we need to take be aware of, that this is not helping to make aviation greener, so to speak.

And having said that, yeah, as a general remark, I think that it's also widely recognized that different industries take different paths for becoming more sustainable. And it's also generally accepted that for aviation, the route to true, sustainable operations, to zero emissions and whatsoever is likely to be longer than for certain other industries-

Ken Quinn:

And many different routes [crosstalk 00:12:31].

Barbara van Koppen:

But that we have [crosstalk 00:12:32]. Yeah, there are many different routes. And having said that we face a huge responsibility and that's how we feel it in KLM as well. That's why we launched our fly responsibly initiative two years ago. We need to do it as an industry. We need to join forces to the extent possible. We need to enter into dialogue with respective industry partners, because it's certainly not something we as airlines can do by ourselves.

Ken Quinn:

But, you did use the T word, right? And Molly at American Airlines. I mean, you're looking now at a more dramatically changed face of an administration's views on the environment. And we have a deputy assistant secretary who comes directly from the environmental defense fund. We were signed up again to the Paris agreement. Are you concerned that the Biden administration might be going too left rudder on us here so that it could be a carbon tax? It could be an approach at ICAO that's markedly different than the CORSIA approach that has exceptions and voluntary commitments and deadlines that some feel are not aggressive enough. And I know you guys did an announcement with Deloitte to it in this area. What are your views?

Molly Wilkinson:

So, two great questions. So on the first part, I haven't seen any indications of that out of the Biden administration. We've done two meetings with Annie Petsonk and have been really impressed with her. She has a deep grasp on the issues and is really open to learning and listening and hearing what we've got to say. One of the best things that we've heard in a recent conversation that she had with all of the international carriers was that she really wanted to make sure that the US was well represented in terms of restrictions and challenges that we may be facing overseas with other countries as people start to consider removing quarantines and things like that.

And so that was really, I think, heartening to hear. She definitely presented herself as an advocate and in this time of the pandemic, that's what I think we're all looking forward to is, when can we get back to traveling again, and how do we work together across boundaries to be able to cohesively lift that whether it's [inaudible 00:14:52] in the United States or whatever the restrictions are over in the EU or in the UK, et cetera. So I've been very, very impressed with her on that.

In terms of CORSIA, I think that gets raised again in the assembly in 2022 in ICAO, so I think we're going to have another indication of where people are thinking about that and seeing about that in that form as well. And so I think it's really too soon to tell what the Biden administration is thinking on that. A lot of good positive things are coming out. I mean, American did its own announcement about a month or so ago that we want to be net zero by 2050.

And so for Deloitte, we had our own recent announcement on this. We basically are working with our team. We basically signed an agreement with Deloitte, one of our largest corporate customers, to allocate the emissions benefit of the SAF that we used last year to them. And we have a second agreement that we hope to announce soon. It's a little bit of a teaser Ken, so don't ask me who it is yet because I'm not allowed to say, shortly. And you know, Deloitte and other companies that have really ambitious climate goals, they can use the SAF certificate concept as a way to make their CO2 reductions in their supply chain. This offsets the current premium for the SAF, which in turn, we hope, will allow us to buy greater volumes of the SAF, which in turn, we hope, drives the price down.

So this is all a good thing that's feeding into each other and that's benefiting it. Which goes back to, I think, the original point that Barbara and Jose were making, there's no one, magic, silver bullet. It's got to be all of these things done concurrently. And I'm sure you're going to find people who don't think that we're doing it fast enough, but we got to start somewhere. We got to start now and we got to keep going and pushing forward as fast and as hard as we can. In, I would like to point out, a pandemic.

Ken Quinn:

Yeah. Let's pivot a little bit to the pandemic.

Molly Wilkinson:

I mean-

Ken Quinn:

Jose Ricardo, the US airlines, by my count, if this bill passes, they're going to have some 63 billion in subsidies to make up for their massive losses, post pandemic. I think Barbara, if I could be wrong, but it's the number that AFKL has received is around 12.6 billion US. I'm not seeing that, Jose Ricardo, in Latin America and the Caribbean. I'm seeing Avianca filed for bankruptcy. I'm seeing LATAM file for bankruptcy. I'm seeing carriers grounding. Governments don't seem to be answering the call to help. What gives and is this fair?

Jose Ricardo Botelho:

Yeah, I'll tell you. I wish that I could bring here some different news about this subject and I'll tell you, it has been hard for us and for our industry here in Latin American and Caribbean. But the fact is, actually we are the region that have received less supporting when we're talking about the financial support. And when I'm talking financial support, usually what I clarify is that we're not talking about giving money for the industry. We're talking here in the [inaudible 00:18:30], in many countries here was to get some loan that could be made in the market basis, but even though we have some announces, but until now, nothing. This was terrible for the industry and what we had... Of course, we understand to a certain point... We understand that so many sectors, the economy here in this area, in this region is a little bit different, we understand the point of the government, but we try to bring to the table, is that work to help the airlines is not to help this sector, but also we're talking here about the tourism sector, about connectivity in the region, because we don't have trains. We don't have enough roads in this region. We're talking about connection between islands and continents. So how important that can be.

Ken Quinn:

Jose Ricardo, do they get it? I mean these airlines, they just seem to take into account, it's always going to be there. It may not be their post pandemic. It could financially collapse, and the matter is rather urgent, is it not?

Jose Ricardo Botelho:

Yes. I understand. But you know, this is the important thing about the Chapter 11. This is the important thing about this Chapter 11 because when you see that you don't get some help, and when you see that is not coming in, everything that we have, we had some deferring payments of some taxes, they changed some labor rules.

Ken Quinn:

Yeah. [crosstalk 00:20:14] things like that can be helpful, but that's [inaudible 00:20:19] margins.

Jose Ricardo Botelho:

[crosstalk 00:20:20]. Yes.

Ken Quinn:

That doesn't add up to $63 billion.

Jose Ricardo Botelho:

I agree. I agree with you. So the situation was in some airlines that we see, okay, let's go to the Chapter 11. But we have to keep in mind as well that go to the Chapter 11 sometimes, or many times, actually we have to see that there's a good point in this situation because this is a time to say, okay, if I [inaudible 00:20:44] help, I don't have that, let them stop. I'd like to keep my service, I'd like to keep operating my industry, so let's reorganize. I believe that the whole industry in this region is doing the same way.

Ken Quinn:

Barbara, are you worried? I mean, you've gone for a lot of aid. I understand you're going back for aid, but the European commission is getting involved and they're actually trying to condition further aid to your airline, which is also losing massive amounts of money on things like slot giveaways to new entrance, to further compete with you at congested airports like Schiphol or London's Heathrow. Can you update us on what's going on? And do you think that kind of government policy is a sound one?

Barbara van Koppen:

Yeah, just to give you some background on the situation in general in Europe, soon after the start of the pandemic, so to speak, the European commission published a so-called state aid. Temporary framework on the [inaudible 00:21:53]. It assesses all requests for state aid. It's not limited to aviation. It's basically accessible for all industries and the governments, the national governments of the EU member states may apply as they see fits for their economies and the continuity of certain important industries to their economies. And under that umbrella, it was a decision of the Dutch state, and also of the French state for that matter, to submit a request for support to KLM, in particular, I talk about KLM here, and under the conditions of the EU temporary framework, we have received a state aid package of 3.4 billion euros, which is entirely in loans.

It's a state direct loan of 1 billion, and it's a state guarantee [inaudible 00:22:50] three credit facility provided by a consortium of banks. Each and every euro of that needs to be paid back. That [inaudible 00:22:59] that clear. There are certain conditions attached to it, but it's all managed by this temporary framework.

We know that, we talk about recapitalization, restoring balance sheets, the commission may impose further conditions, and that's what you were referring to Ken. It could be that they will ask for remedies in the form of slots so that we have to give up slots if recapitalization is the next step in this. It will be the task of the commission to strike the balance between, on the one hand, providing further aid to protect the competitive landscape, so to speak, to have the airline operators asking for this aid to keep them in business, so to speak. And on the other hands, if you ask too heavy conditions, it may well jeopardize the further possibility of airlines to restructure, to become profitable again. So it's a balancing act that's basically in the hands of the commission, in my view. What-

Ken Quinn:

And slot giveaways really haven't had a great history of success. Of course, there's got to be someone willing to operate the slot and there's really no airline in a great financial condition to expand dramatically at any particular airport. Molly, I see you shaking your head. You know, one world has as a lot of experience in this area. And you've dealt with your partner BA, having to give up slots in places like Heathrow. How much aid, Molly, or the US airlines are going to get in this last round? And is it fair, to just be a devil's advocate for a second, that US airlines, the major three, had complained about subsidies to the Middle East carriers, but now you're the recipient of very large subsidies for the pandemic crisis to get you through, and you're asking for more. Is that consistent with your opposition to subsidies? I know that's a lot Molly, but can you respond?

Molly Wilkinson:

Well, I knew this question was coming there. I know you well enough to know Ken. And I should just put here, Ken and I play golf together, or I should say, Ken takes pity on me and will let me play golf with him. So I think that that is kind of a specious question. And let me just lay it out, why. So you can't even really compare the two. And I think you're alluding to our opposition to the subsidies given to Middle East carriers. And it's an apples to oranges comparison and here's why. First of all, this is a black swan event, once in a hundred years and it affected the entire industry.

So in the United States, what's happening is you have aid being given to the aviation industry where well over 100 different airlines applied to receive the aid that was given in the different... There's three packages that are coming out right now. The third one is in the house right now. It passed out of the Senate on Saturday morning. But essentially this was something that was eligible for the entire US aviation industry, if you met certain criteria. And in addition to that, there are strings attached to it. You have to provide essential air service. You had to meet other criteria that were there. You had to also turn over your books or give transparency to the US government so they could see this. And under certain circumstances you had to pay back some of that grant that you got. And then in addition, it was a straight up pass through. I mean, this was money that was to go to pay for salaries for your frontline employees.

Ken Quinn:

That's to keep the employees on too right? It's a job preservation [crosstalk 00:27:04].

Molly Wilkinson:

Correct. Correct. And this is not going to management in any way, shape, or form. This was literally to keep your frontline employees there and continue to have healthcare, benefits, et cetera. And that's mostly, not mostly, it is because aviation industry is such a key part of the American economy. I mean, it was like 5%, I've got the stats here. It was 5% of the US gross domestic economy before the pandemic and supported over 10 million US jobs. And so this was a critical linchpin pre-pandemic to how the economy focused and let me get this out then if you-

Ken Quinn:

I see Jose Ricardo drooling over this money right now. But why should taxpayers be paying you to keep employees on if they're not needed? I mean, why don't you just take down flights, take down frequencies and lay people off or furlough them until they're needed, and then you rehire them, and let them go on unemployment or something else?

Molly Wilkinson:

Well, one, this avoids keeping them on unemployment and all of the things around that. And two, we have a specialized workforce that in terms of them going off, particularly pilots, flight attendants, one of their primary responsibilities is safety and safety of the passengers. And that's something that you have to keep current on your training. You have to keep them in cycle. You have to keep them on their hours. In terms of them going out of cycle, to bring them back up to speed, if and when this ends, also potentially could be even more costly than just keeping them current and keeping them on board.

And the other thing I'd like to add on is we do have people flying. Our numbers are 60% off of our flight numbers, but we do have population of people who are willing to fly and who are willing to get there. And our cargo numbers, I know you haven't gotten to that yet, but our cargo numbers have gone through the roof as have all of our other carriers.

Ken Quinn:

Let's talk about that for a second. Jose Ricardo, a lot of Americans I know in the United States, they don't realize that some 80% of their flowers, for example, come from Columbia and Ecuador, through Miami in bellies of airplanes and in all cargo aircraft. Demand on the passenger side, [inaudible 00:29:20] saying it fell 72%. I'm glad to hear 60%. It's sad that that's a good number. But how is cargo contributing to the financial health of your carriers? And when are we going to see demand pop up? And we need to get down to our COVID response, and how are we going to get governments to lift these quarantines that are just absolutely killing the industry? Jose Ricardo.

Jose Ricardo Botelho:

Yeah. I think this is a way that you find to do something with the aircraft is in, we have the market because we have this, increase it, as well, 18% in our region, but it's still not enough because we have to keep in mind that about globally, about 40% of the total cargo is [inaudible 00:30:06] the belly of the passenger flights. So we have some increase and even we have the help of the authorities with the goal of how to adapt the aircraft in order to do just cargo. And I believe that at this point that the vaccine is there, this is going to be very helpful in our region because we have to deliver that as soon as possible. Because right now, since we don't have any other support, just some changes in some rules, the vaccine is the only way to bring confidence to the people to travel again and to restart our industry. Our [crosstalk 00:30:57]

Ken Quinn:

Barbara, is it a combination of what Jose Ricardo... Vaccines and testing before flight or after flight really a good road [inaudible 00:31:08] to lift quarantines and to get folks flying again and get rid of these international bans. I know in Europe, it's a little more difficult situation actually, where you guys stand. But what's our path forward out of this pandemic?

Barbara van Koppen:

Well, I think the combination of the two is, the vaccines as well as the continued testing will ultimately enable governments to lift current travel restrictions and open up for tourism. And in that respect, I am quite happy with the initiative of the EU commission to look for a... What is it, a digital green pass, if I'm correct-

Molly Wilkinson:

Yes. Yes.

Barbara van Koppen:

They will announce legislation March 17, or they try to work on a harmonized coordinated exit from the [inaudible 00:32:03] and recovery and restart of the travel industry. And that will be very helpful and extremely helpful. I think that we all agree that that vaccination is key in recovery. And let's hope sooner rather than later, that while there are sufficient vaccines available for all of us and that we will soon see governments lifting travel restrictions, and we work towards a harmonized and coordinated full restart of our industry.

Ken Quinn:

Yeah. [crosstalk 00:32:38].

Molly Wilkinson:

And Ken, just to build on that. We at American have our version of the green pass announcement that I did see the EU announce and they're looking to do it, as Barbara said on March 17th, we've been using a version called VeriFLY, which is a very simple app, and it can record your COVID test results and it will have the feature of being able to record whether or not you've had your vaccine. Very simple and easy to use. We've rolled it out already and it's been very popular with our passengers as they go to the Caribbean or in some cases, Latin America. Very simple to use. It streamlines the check-in process. It's touchless. It's been very successful. And I think Barbara is right-

Ken Quinn:

[inaudible 00:33:24] I think that's great.

Molly Wilkinson:

Everybody's going to be migrating to some version of that. Yet again, another way of not touching or interacting with people and keeping your social distance.

Ken Quinn:

Yeah. Because I mean, we saw Carsten Spohr the other day, CEO of Lufthansa, they had an $8 billion loss in 2020. And it's just staggering. Somebody said, travel restrictions and quarantines have led to a unique slump and [inaudible 00:33:46] for air travel. Now internationally recognized digital vaccination and test certificates must replace travel bans in quarantine. Jose Ricardo, is that something you'd agree with?

Jose Ricardo Botelho:

Yeah. Yes. I agree 100%. I would say that quarantine, when you talk about this, this is terrible because actually you kill the demand, and no one's going to travel or have the confidence to travel again if you have the quarantine. You have to find a way to give confidence and to bring back travel again, but with something that showed that, okay, I have my vaccine [inaudible 00:34:18] it is all set. So I agree 100%.

Ken Quinn:

[foreign language 00:34:27].

Jose Ricardo Botelho:

[foreign language 00:34:26].

Ken Quinn:

Thank you. Thank you all so much folks. I hope you enjoyed this discussion. I'm sorry, we've got to cut it short. We could talk all day on these subjects. But we've been blessed to have a very distinguished panel today at CAPA Live. Tune in next month, the second Wednesday of every month, where CAPA Live brings you the latest news, issues, discussions, from the most distinguished airline industry colleagues all over the world. Thank you panelists. Thank you for listening. Have a great day, everyone.

Barbara van Koppen:

Thank you.

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