Loading

Research Publications

CAPA Research Publications are long-form in-depth analysis of a feature of the aviation industry, presented in PDF format.

Malaysia CAPA Aviation Country Report Oct-2021

Malaysia’s capacity is on the upwards trajectory, albeit a gradual one. From record lows seen throughout 2021, the aviation industry in the country is beginning the slow recovery.

Half the country’s aircraft fleet remains inactive, however with a backlog of nearly 500, the majority of which are to AirAsia, the recovery is expected to be quicker once regional LCC travel resumes.

Malaysia’s aircraft delivery schedule is impressive, with nearly 30 aircraft being delivered every year until at least 2035. 

Save time on your prep and let us do the legwork for you. CAPA’s Aviation Reports are perfect for meetings and internal reports, they quickly summarise items such as fleet graphs, traffic and financial results and more in a shareable PDF format.

CAPA Members get access to these comprehensive and up-to-date reports for any country, airline or airport globally.

This specific report is a special focus on Malaysia and includes:

  •  An overview
  • 20 most recent news briefs
  • Fleet tables and graphs
  • Capabilities tables and graphs
  • MRO tables and graphs
  • Schedules analysis tables and graphs
  • Cargo analysis graphs
  • Traffic graphs
  • Tourism tables and graphs
  • LCC tables and graphs
Thailand CAPA Aviation Country Report Oct-2021

Thailand is one of many Asian countries still grappling with the pandemic’s effects.

With weekly capacity even below 2020 levels, more than half of the country’s fleet remains inactive. However, on the 27th September 2021 the Thai government approved a four-phase timeline for the country’s tourism reopening.

 Following a pilot phase on the island of Phuket, the roll-out will then be extended to Bangkok and a number of mainland and island tourist destinations. The final phase will see much of the country’s tourist destinations open to travellers.

Thailand is one of the key examples of how strict measures to curb COVID-19 have impacted aviation and the tourism industry. With the country opening up in the coming months, it will be interesting to see if it has any immediate impact on those industries. 

Save time on your prep and let us do the legwork for you. CAPA’s Aviation Reports are perfect for meetings and internal reports, they quickly summarise items such as fleet graphs, traffic and financial results and more in a shareable PDF format.

CAPA Members get access to these comprehensive and up-to-date reports for any country, airline or airport globally.

This specific report is a special focus on Thailand and includes:

  •  An overview
  • 20 most recent news briefs
  • Fleet tables and graphs
  • Capabilities tables and graphs
  • MRO tables and graphs
  • Schedules analysis tables and graphs
  • Cargo analysis graphs
  • Traffic graphs
  • Tourism tables and graphs
  • LCC tables and graphs
Vietnam CAPA Aviation Country Report Oct-2021

Much like many other South East Asian countries, Vietnam’s aviation industry suffered greatly during the pandemic. With two thirds of the countries fleet still inactive, the country has a long way to go to rebuild the industry.

The country is expecting extensive aircraft deliveries over the coming years, with Vietjet leading the way in terms of  number of orders, having a total of 344 aircraft on backlog.

With current Vietnamese capacity levels at near-record lows it will be a slow recovery, however there are significant green shoots for the country, with multiple domestic routes restarting from the middle of Oct-2021. 

Save time on your prep and let us do the legwork for you. CAPA’s Aviation Reports are perfect for meetings and internal reports, they quickly summarise items such as fleet graphs, traffic and financial results and more in a shareable PDF format.

CAPA Members get access to these comprehensive and up-to-date reports for any country, airline or airport globally.

This specific report is a special focus on Vietnam and includes:

  •  An overview
  • 20 most recent news briefs
  • Fleet tables and graphs
  • Capabilities tables and graphs
  • MRO tables and graphs
  • Schedules analysis tables and graphs
  • Cargo analysis graphs
  • Traffic graphs
  • Tourism tables and graphs
  • LCC tables and graphs
Singapore CAPA Aviation Country Report Sep-2021

As Singapore’s passenger capacity is still at a near record low, nearly a third of the country’s fleet remains inactive. Recent relaxation in measures to allow for some inbound tourism from Germany and Brunei has sparked hope for Singapore Airlines, suggesting wider travel corridors may be formed in the near future.

Singapore has been more exposed than many other countries throughout the coronavirus pandemic, due to the nature of the aviation market. The island nation has no domestic capacity to fall back on, therefore relies solely on international routes.

The country’s airlines have an extensive aircraft backlog, with deliveries on nearly 90 aircraft expected in the coming years. If demand is continually suppressed in the coming years, revisions in the order books may occur.

Save time on your prep and let us do the legwork for you. CAPA’s Aviation Reports are perfect for meetings and internal reports, they quickly summarise items such as fleet graphs, traffic and financial results and more in a shareable PDF format.

CAPA Members get access to these comprehensive and up-to-date reports for any country, airline or airport globally.

This specific report is a special focus on Singapore and includes:

  •  An overview
  • 20 most recent news briefs
  • Fleet tables and graphs
  • Capabilities tables and graphs
  • MRO tables and graphs
  • Schedules analysis tables and graphs
  • Cargo analysis graphs
  • Traffic graphs
  • Tourism tables and graphs
  • LCC tables and graphs
Japan CAPA Aviation Country Report Sep-2021

In the aftermath of the Summer Olympic Games in Tokyo, Japan’s aviation market is appearing to be on a positive trajectory. Only 28 of the nation’s fleet of over 660 remain inactive, and with nearly 40 aircraft due for delivery to Japan’s airlines in 2022, capacity is set to increase.

Despite the country hosting the summer Olympic and Paralympic Games, Japan’s 2021 capacity is currently lower than that seen in the latter half of 2020, largely due to waves of COVID-19 in the country. The Olympic and Paralympic games only saw a slight increase in visitor numbers in the month of Jul-2021, up from an average of 10,000 visitors to 53,000 for the month of sport.

Save time on your prep, and let us do the legwork for you. CAPA’s Aviation Reports are perfect for meetings and internal reports, they quickly summarise items such as fleet graphs, traffic and financial results and more in a shareable PDF format.

CAPA Members get access to these comprehensive and up-to-date reports for any country, airline or airport globally.

This specific report is a special focus on Japan and includes:

  •  An overview
  • 20 most recent news briefs
  • Fleet tables and graphs
  • Capabilities tables and graphs
  • MRO tables and graphs
  • Schedules analysis tables and graphs
  • Cargo analysis graphs
  • Traffic graphs
  • Tourism tables and graphs
  • LCC tables and graphs
South Korea CAPA Aviation Country Report Sep-2021

South Korea has seen one of the most impressive domestic seat capacities, reaching 160% of 2019 levels, the highest capacity recovery of any nation

However, international capacity is below 2020 levels, suggesting a difficult reopening to international routes in the future. Because of the reduced international capacity, overall recovery is still less than a third of the 2019 totals.

South Korea has over 50 aircraft due for delivery in 2022, mostly short haul aircraft, ideal for catering to the increased domestic demand. With Korean Air and Asiana set for merging in the near future, it’s expected that some fleet portfolio changes may occur, with the aim of consolidating the fleet and operations.

Save time on your prep, and let us do the legwork for you. CAPA’s Aviation Reports are perfect for meetings and internal reports, they quickly summarise items such as fleet graphs, traffic and financial results and more in a shareable PDF format.

CAPA Members get access to these comprehensive and up-to-date reports for any country, airline or airport globally.

This specific report is a special focus on South Korea and includes:

  •  An overview
  • 20 most recent news briefs
  • Fleet tables and graphs
  • Capabilities tables and graphs
  • MRO tables and graphs
  • Schedules analysis tables and graphs
  • Cargo analysis graphs
  • Traffic graphs
  • Tourism tables and graphs
  • LCC tables and graphs
Asia Pacific Inflight Connectivity; An overview of the region’s inflight connectivity coverage

As the global aviation industry reawakens from the lows experienced in 2020 due to the pandemic, eyes are turning back to how the industry evolves in the coming years. 

Inflight connectivity (IFC) has become so common in some regions of the world that it is no longer seen as a luxury, but instead an expected service that is noticed when absent.

North America has paved the way, with many years of development and IFC infrastructure upgrades to its fleets.
Onboard connectivity caters to the millions of millennial leisure travellers and savvy business passengers in the
region. In fact, for some legacy US airlines, IFC has become the ‘talking point’ of onboard service development,where other hard products lag the global competition.
 
In the Middle East, with some of the world’s leading airlines in onboard service, connectivity is again becoming expected. Adding to the portfolio of services that some of the Gulf airlines already have onboard.
 
One region that is surprising, however, is the Asia Pacific; the global leader in aviation growth, even during the COVID-19 pandemic. What is surprising is the small number of aircraft within the region that have some form of IFC onboard.
 
Some airlines in the region are leading the way, with airlines in Japan and Australia having extensive coverage.
However, airlines in China and India, among other large markets in the region, lack the momentum of IFC installation or were limited by regulations.
 
In fact, as a percentage of total fleet within the region that has IFC onboard, the Asia Pacific is only slightly ahead of Latin America, a region that notoriously has low IFC coverage.
 
The tide is changing, however. Some green shoots of IFC are already showing. LCCs in the Asia Pacific are already seeing high rates of coverage with AirAsia among one of the most IFCenabled LCCs in the world.
 
Only time will tell how the Asia Pacific, like other regions, emerges from the pandemic.
With the growing middle class in the Asia Pacific region, passengers are becoming savvier and expecting more.
Investment in onboard service upgrades is key, however in a post-2020 aviation
industry, this is something that may be hard to come by. It will be all about balance; managing expectation, while
matching the needs and wants of the regions’ growing passenger base.
 
 
 
 
 
 
Airports - Potential M&A Activity in 2H2021 and beyond

Researched and produced by leading CAPA Analysts and backed by industry data, the report lists airports and airport groups which could be attractive to investors and identifies other airports that may be a target for mergers or acquisitions. The report features a case study on the move from Hungarian government to enact a sort of partial reverse privatisation by acquiring the equity of the majority shareholder, AviAlliance, in Budapest Ferenc Liszt International Airport. Finally, the report concludes with pinpointing the operators and investors to watch, based partly on their participation in the sector already and partly on their level of activity before the pandemic.

Report Length: 71 Pages

Report Summary:

For evident reasons the last 18 months have been the quietest known for airport M&A transactions since the early 1990s. While some that were already in train did continue, for example in Brazil (with hardly any delays to the concession programme there), and in Japan (with some, but not for long), and some long-standing others like the Sofia concession were completed, new opportunities for investors have been very hard to find.

Investors with a penchant for airports couldn’t be blamed for walking away from a business where the ultimate customer base – the passenger – collapsed by up to 99% along with most of the auxiliary revenue streams, where uncertainty abounds, and where its future prospects are at the whim of ultra cautious governments, many of which may use the ‘opportunity’ presented by the pandemic to ‘reset’ aviation within the context of a rapidly carbon-free future. Aviation will not

be carbon-free ‘rapidly’ or even for a long time, which classifies it as a dinosaur to many of those in power. Then, out of the blue, a tentative but unsolicited bid emerged by a consortium of investors to buy Sydney’s Kingsford Smith International Airport, which is listed on the stock exchange.

That consortium’s bid essentially hangs on: continuing ‘local’ ownership and retained management; investment experience; the promise of improved operational and financial performance; and a commitment to ‘green’ ideals and targets.

Section 1 – Review of listed airports/groups which could be attractive to investors

Those credentials are likely to become the norm as deals begin to reappear – and especially the last one.

This bid, a rare one for a publicly listed company and similar to the one for BAA plc in 2006, also raises the question of whether other wholly or partially floated airport companies, most of them dating from the 1990s, might also become hostile investor targets.

The majority of them have since established themselves as multi-ownership companies in which the public float has reduced and sometimes considerably so. Additionally, there are still occasionally investment level caps preventing single entity equity investment beyond, say, 5% or 10%. So opportunities will be rare.

But it can be done, as the case of Vienna Airport proves, where an Australian fund, the lead member of the Sydney consortium as it happens, ate into the free float in two tranches, leaving itself in a close-to-controlling position.

There is a wide range of airports that are publicly or privately owned, or with no stock market float component, or where there has been, and even where there actually is but the government remains firmly at the helm of strategic development, that could also become targets for investors in the coming months and years.

Section 2 – Other airports that might be M&A targets

Section 2 of the report reviews some of the more likely candidates, including Berlin, where the new airport began life long ago as a private-sector enterprise before a crippling public-sector construction debacle set in, and where the private sector might yet be required to fly to the rescue of an entity that had the misfortune to open nine years late – in the middle of the pandemic.

It examines the prospects for greater competition between airports in the US – and even within cities there, where public private-partnership development is becoming commonplace, despite the failure of a 25-year privatisation scheme designed to lease airports out wholly – and in Canada, which retains its unique ‘not for profit, stakeholder’ ownership system.

Section 3 – Budapest Ferenc Liszt International Airport

Section 3 of the report looks inter alia at a move by the Hungarian government to enact a sort of partial reverse privatisation by acquiring the equity of the majority shareholder, AviAlliance, in Budapest Ferenc Liszt International Airport.

While such state grabs are rare, they do happen. One of them, in Bolivia, helped end the participation of the Spanish company Abertis in the sector as well as causing international friction, and there have been several other examples of national government interference in airport ownership in Europe.

The government’s decision in Hungary is driven by politics and raises questions about future ownership of airports and state protectionism across Eastern Europe as not only Hungary, but also several other countries in the region, could well leave the European Union in the following years.

Section 4 – Who are the buyers and concessionaires?

Finally, the report looks at which might be the operators and investors to watch in the future, based partly on their participation in the sector already, and partly on their level of activity before the pandemic.

Inevitably much of that renewed activity will likely arise from a small group (20 of them are examined here) which have a track record in the sector, and it is interesting to note how so many of them were chasing the same deals up to Jan-2020.

There are many other investors and potential new ones, and throughout the text reference is frequently made to various CAPA databases (Global Airport Investors; Airport Construction and Cap Ex; and a shortly forthcoming one on the major airports and airports groups in FY2020 as measured by revenues and other metrics), which will enable professionals in the industry better to understand this complex segment of it.

CAPA – Centre for Aviation Managing Director, Derek Sadubin said:

“Airport transactions for the most part have ground to a halt as the pandemic bites. But as we begin to see some light at the end of the tunnel, opportunities across the sector are beginning to re-emerge. This new CAPA report supports investors, financers, government and infrastructure planning departments to look beyond just the next few weeks or months ahead and take the first step towards identifying real opportunities for the future.”

The impacts of the global pandemic have meant the last 18 months have been the quietest for airport merger and acquisition transactions since the early 1990s. While some that were already in the works did continue, for example in Brazil and Japan, new opportunities for investors have been very hard to find.

Investors with a penchant for airports couldn’t be blamed for walking away from a business where the ultimate customer base – the passenger – collapsed by up to 99% along with most of the auxiliary revenue streams. Nevertheless, after a lengthy period with little activity in the airports sector, prospects in the future look bright and a few key bids may just pave the way for more to come.

The new CAPA Airport Mergers & Acquisition Opportunities for 2H2021 and Beyond is available now for USD795.

Are you a CAPA Member? Contact your account manager now to receive a 50% discount code. 

Airline Start-Ups: A global overview of new airlines over the past 18 months

Despite initial fears towards the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, fewer airlines went out of business than first predicted. During 2020 only around 30 collapsed, out of a total of thousands of airlines.

During the most difficult time for the aviation industry on record, where international capacity fell to around one tenth of its previous level and many domestic operations fared only slightly better, it was surprising that so few airlines went out of business. What surprised, even with the most optimistic of predictions, was that several new airlines entered the market and began operating.

Few countries escaped the pandemic without having seen dramatic reductions in capacity, however some achieved a return to normality, and even exceeded previous capacity by late 2020.

Many of these countries were in the Asia Pacific. Owing to successful initial responses to the pandemic, in China, South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan there was, in all of them, robust domestic capacity, and all four countries saw new entrants into the market during 2020.

Since the end of 2020, the remarkable trend of new start-ups continues. As the world, and in particular the aviation industry, emerges from the capacity lows that are the result of months of harsh lockdowns and border closures, the number of new airline start-ups continues to climb, with many future entrants poised to launch.

It is considered that new airline start-ups offer significant opportunity for growth over the coming months and years, as the industry recovers. With airlines poised to seize back the market share they occupied before the global collapse in aviation capacity, it has become a perfect storm for new entrants. However, with the aviation landscape looking more competitive than ever, it is expected that not all new entrants will survive the gruelling task ahead.

Report Length: 13 Pages

Aviation recovery -Three very different versions: China, the USA and Europe

From the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic the world’s three largest aviation markets, China, the USA, and Europe have taken contrasting approaches and begun recoveries at different rates, each with different levels of success. The rest of the world has fallen somewhere in between. The levels of risk tolerance and consequent paths to recovery in all three markets have varied widely, but although the industry desperately wants to add capacity, sustainable growth on a secure foundation will be needed.

Despite the turmoil that the pandemic has created, there are now some green shoots appearing, some even as early as 2Q2020. During 2020 and into 2021 some countries and regions leveraged different strategies to begin slow recoveries back to the capacity levels that were seen in 2019; however, others were far less sustained, and led to setbacks and continued suppression of capacity. 

Internationally, while a standardisation of approach is now badly needed to allow market reopening, that will not occur until the pandemic is much better controlled and vaccinations are vastly more widely distributed.

Click on the bottom to download the full report