In projecting likely outcomes as the COVID-19 coronavirus disrupts all previous predictions, CAPA has turned to our data partners,some of the best forward indicator data sources in aviation:
- OAG, schedules
- 3VIctors, travel searches
- ForwardKeys, forward bookings
- PredictHQ, conferences and events.
At this stage in the rollout of the worst threat to the industry in modern aviation, many of the indicators are predictable, airline seats are being grounded, travel searches are confounded by the absence of real travel options, with a similar impact on forward bookings; conferences and events equally are almost uniformly being cancelled or postponed.
But, as can be seen below there are some very modest indications of hope for the coming months - which we shall track as they mature into a real recovery. When those forward looking results start to offer guidance to future actions, their full value will emerge.
For now, as PredictHQ suggests below, "the good news for airlines is that the vast majority of the events have been postponed", rather than being cancelled, so once the revised dates start to firm up, the outlook brightens considerably. The effects on the airline industry will then be indicated by 3Victors and ForwardKeys as the news translates into buyer activity.