Olympic legacy: Contrasting views on the Paris 2024 Olympics’ impact
Air France and Transavia France expect to face revenue pressure due to the Olympic Games, as international travellers avoid Paris and domestic travel slows, leading to an estimated EUR160 million to EUR180 million revenue loss for Air France-KLM from Jun-2024 to Aug-2024.
However, travel demand is expected to rebound after the Olympics.
In contrast, industry reports show strong overall demand for travel to France during the Games, with significant year-on-year increases in GDS bookings and positive trends for both the Olympics and Paralympics.
Air France and Transavia France report 'pressure on projected unit revenues' due to Paris Olympics...
Air France and Transavia France announced at the start of Jul-2024 they "are currently experiencing pressure on projected unit revenues for the summer season due to the upcoming Olympic Games in Paris", with traffic to and from Paris lagging behind other major European cities.
The carriers stated international markets are showing "a significant avoidance of Paris", while travel between Paris and other destinations is also below the usual June through August average, as French residents seem to be postponing their holidays until after the Olympic Games or considering alternative travel plans.
Air France-KLM estimated a negative impact on its forthcoming unit revenues in an order of magnitude, from EUR160 million to EUR180 million for the period Jun-2024 until Aug-2024.
... but travel is expected to normalise after conclusion of the Games
Travel to and from France is expected to normalise after the Olympic Games, "with encouraging demand levels projected for the end of Aug-2024 and the whole of Sep-2024".
Prior to this, at the start of Jun-2024, Air France-KLM CEO Ben Smith had said capacity arriving at Paris CDG and Paris Orly "should be about the same as last year" during the Olympics.
Mr Smith highlighted "we're not adding any aircraft to our fleet this summer and most summers are well over 90% load factor", and as a result "there is not going to be an increase in the number of passengers".
He noted however that "the flows will be different, we'll have less passengers connecting, and more passengers originating or destined for Paris".
Amadeus and ForwardKeys reveal positive trends
Interestingly, reports from other companies show rather positive trends.
Amadeus reported GDS travel bookings to France are up 52% year-on-year for the Olympic Games period between 24-Jul-2024 and 13-Aug-2024, with domestic and international air travel up 31% and 56%, respectively.
Furthermore, the Paralympic Games between 28-Aug-2024 and 08-Sep-2024 is expected to boost travel to Paris by 16%.
Meanwhile, ForwardKeys reported demand for travel during the Olympic Games in Paris is also higher year-on-year.
According to data from CAPA - Centre for Aviation and OAG, scheduled seat capacity for France is currently trending above levels seen in 2023 and also in 2019 ahead of the COVID-19 pandemic.
France system seat capacity, as at week commencing 19-Aug-2024
