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Farnborough: Embraer releases 20-year forecast for 30 to 120-seat jets

20-Jul-2010 12:37 PM

Embraer released (19-Jul-2010) its 20-year commercial aviation market outlook, in which the aircraft manufacturer forecasts that the size of the world fleet of 30- to 120-seat jets will increase from 4,285 aircraft in 2009 to 7,780 in 2029. Embraer also forecast 51% of new aircraft deliveries (3,495) will be added to support current growth and 49% (3,380) will be needed to replace ageing fleet. The report identified the following demand for new aircraft by region from 2010 to 2029:

  • Air traffic growth:
  • 4.9% world average annual growth over the next 20 years;
  • Passenger traffic (RPKs) demand in 2029 will be 2.7 times greater than in 2009;
  • China’s annual growth rate will be the highest at 7.3%;
  • Latin America, Asia Pacific, and Russia & CIS air traffic is forecast to grow by 6% p/a;
  • Africa will grow by an average of 5% p/a;
  • North America and Europe will grow by an average of 3.5% p/a;
  • Asia Pacific and China will represent more than one-third of the world air traffic by 2029;
  • USA and Europe will decrease their share of world air traffic from 57% in 2009 to 44% in 2029;

Embraer also released the following delivery forecast for the 30 to 120-seat segment:

  • By capacity:
    • 30-60 seats: 475;
    • 61-90: 2,515;
    • 91-120: 3,885.
  • By region:
    • Total deliveries: 6,875;
    • North America: 2,400, 35% of total;
    • Europe: 1,510, 22%;
    • China: 950, 14%;
    • Latin America: 575, 8%;
    • Asia Pacific: 575, 8%;
    • Russia & CIS: 405, 6%;
    • Middle East: 240, 4%;
    • Africa: 220, 3%. [more]