Boeing released (02-Oct-2012) details of its 'World Air Cargo Forecast 2012/2013', estimating the global air cargo market will expand at 5.2% p/a over the next 20 years. Growth will be driven by world GDP growth of 3.2%, meaning global GDP will nearly double over the forecast period. Trade is expected to increase through liberalisation of markets, more efficient aircraft and infrastructure improvements reducing the cost of air cargo.
- World freighter fleet: Increase from 1738 to to 3198 aircraft by 2031. Large freighters will represent 36% of the fleet, compared to 31% today;
- New aircraft: 935 aircraft, valued at USD250 billion;
- Conversions: 1820 passenger-to-freighter aircraft conversions, accounting for about 66% of total demand.
Markets connecting the Asia Pacific will lead the industry in growth, with domestic China (+8%) and intra-Asia (+6.9%) traffic experiencing the highest growth. North America-Asia, Europe-South Asia, Europe-Asia, and Europe-Middle East also will be above the world average. Fuel costs are expected to be volatile, but are not anticipated to move significantly higher than current levels. Additionally, shippers of such cargo as perishables and very high value commodities will continue to find value in the speed of air cargo. [more - original PR]
Boeing: "Current industry uncertainty has brought a disparity of viewpoint concerning the future of the air cargo business, but economic activity – particularly world gross domestic product and industrial production – remains the key driver of the air cargo market," Tom Crabtree, regional director, business development and strategic integration, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. Source: Company statement, 02-Oct-2012.