Air France-KLM reports 9% rise in Asia Pacific pax traffic, British Airways down 22% in May-2010
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All-premium UK-US airlines. BA cuts LCY frequency; La Compagnie quits LTN; Odyssey to launch in 2017
There have been two notable recent developments in the market for all-business class services on the North Atlantic: British Airways is to reduce its London City-JFK A318 frequencies and France's La Compagnie is to withdraw from Luton-Newark to concentrate its 74-seat Boeing 757 operations on Paris-Newark (its only other route).
BA's 32-seat London City operation has been suffering from significant load factor declines, particularly on the outbound flights. These flights make a refuelling stop in Shannon, where passengers can pre-clear US customs, but this may not be a sufficient incentive for some passengers to take an indirect flight. La Compagnie expressed concerns about uncertainties in the UK post-Brexit, but its route economics must anyway have been struggling, due to Luton's lack of suitability as a premium market and its lack of feed.
So far there has been no reaction to these developments from the new-start Odyssey Airlines, which plans to launch an all-business class London City-New York service in 2017. It will no doubt be attempting to find a balance between relief that its level of competition has reduced, and some anxiety that its launch may coincide with a softening of market demand.
Lufthansa still Number 2 vs IAG & Air France-KLM. Soft RASK justifies more ASK trimming for all
Lufthansa Group's detailed 2Q2016 results confirmed the headline numbers that it pre-released with a profit warning on 20-Jul-2016. After increasing its operating profit in 1Q, the group suffered a decline in 2Q. Among Europe's big three legacy airline groups, Lufthansa was the only one to report lower 2Q profits. In 1H2016, IAG again has the best operating margin of the three, followed by Lufthansa and then Air France-KLM. However, LCCs Ryanair and Wizz Air are more profitable than any of them.
Lufthansa's full 2Q report provides an opportunity to compare the capacity growth and unit revenue performance of each of the Lufthansa Group, Air France-KLM and IAG for 2Q2016. Unit revenue has been soft for some time for all three, but seems to be weakening further. Lufthansa cautioned that advance bookings, especially on long-haul, have declined significantly, citing repeated terrorist attacks in Europe and greater political and economic uncertainty.
Against this backdrop, IAG and Lufthansa have reduced their capacity growth plans, while Air France-KLM has retained its 1% ASK growth outlook for its network airlines. CAPA's analysis highlights the inverse relationship between capacity growth and RASK growth. Further capacity haircuts may follow.