Emirates is close to overtaking American Airlines and becoming the third largest airline by available seat kilometres (ASKs) after the Dubai-based carrier's massive 19% increase in capacity over the last year. Emirates' current capacity is close to 30% above levels of just two years ago, according to Innovata. Over the same period, American has cut capacity by about 8% while larger rivals United Airlines and Delta Air Lines have slashed ASKs by over 16%, according to Innovata. Interestingly, were American Airlines to combine with US Airways it would become the world's biggest airline - some 4% larger than Delta by ASKs based on Innovata capacity figures for Aug-2012.
The other big movers over the past two years include Ryanair, which has leapfrogged China Southern and US Airways into the Top 10, and Turkish Airlines, which has soared into 17th position (from 27th two summers ago) thanks to an astonishing 52% increase in ASKs. easyJet has also moved up several places to be just outside the Top 20, while Japan's ANA and JAL have fallen outside the top 20 grouping.
Innovata's top 25 airlines by capacity (ASKs per week): Aug-2010 vs Aug-2011 vs Aug-2012**
| Airline | Aug-10 | Rank Aug-10 | Aug-11 | Rank Aug-11 | Aug-12 | Rank Aug-12 | % change Aug-12 vs Aug-11 | % change Aug-12 vs Aug-10 | Change in Ranking Aug-12 vs Aug-10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United Airlines* | 8,559,352,341 | 1 | 7,823,096,345 | 1 | 7,167,935,282 | 1 | -8.4% | -16.3% | - |
| Delta Air Lines | 8,169,938,414 | 2 | 7,214,639,449 | 2 | 6,816,158,460 | 2 | -5.5% | -16.6% | - |
| American Airlines | 5,456,733,975 | 3 | 5,182,443,553 | 3 | 4,999,932,364 | 3 | -3.5% | -8.4% | - |
| Emirates | 3,651,406,839 | 4 | 3,949,442,849 | 4 | 4,708,115,952 | 4 | 19.2% | 28.9% | - |
| Lufthansa | 3,352,751,753 | 5 | 3,494,671,522 | 5 | 3,519,987,224 | 5 | 0.7% | 5.0% | - |
| Southwest Airlines | 3,203,873,890 | 7 | 3,427,935,137 | 6 | 3,263,059,323 | 6 | -4.8% | 1.8% | +1 |
| British Airways | 2,974,687,480 | 8 | 3,018,521,891 | 8 | 3,110,745,041 | 7 | 3.1% | 4.6% | +1 |
| Air France | 3,216,942,369 | 6 | 3,153,470,501 | 7 | 3,109,564,529 | 8 | -1.4% | -3.3% | -2 |
| Ryanair | 2,293,470,161 | 12 | 2,566,164,727 | 9 | 2,777,322,555 | 9 | 8.2% | 21.1% | +3 |
| China Southern | 2,328,364,152 | 10 | 2,455,250,680 | 11 | 2,737,663,358 | 10 | 11.5% | 17.6% | - |
| US Airways | 2,902,727,086 | 9 | 2,513,330,825 | 10 | 2,486,915,978 | 11 | -1.1% | -14.3% | -2 |
| Cathay Pacific | 2,163,667,133 | 13 | 2,382,781,556 | 12 | 2,354,594,576 | 12 | -1.2% | 8.8% | +1 |
| Singapore Airlines | 2,027,841,082 | 14 | 2,168,619,854 | 13 | 2,338,265,300 | 13 | 7.8% | 15.3% | +1 |
| Air China | 2,000,760,821 | 15 | 2,094,821,889 | 15 | 2,299,475,518 | 14 | 9.8% | 14.9% | +1 |
| China Eastern | 1,826,393,954 | 18 | 1,980,450,651 | 18 | 2,178,547,639 | 15 | 10.0% | 19.3% | +3 |
| Air Canada | 2,310,765,583 | 11 | 2,164,576,164 | 14 | 2,163,599,190 | 16 | 0.0% | -6.4% | -5 |
| Turkish Airlines | 1,317,478,574 | 27 | 1,666,417,743 | 21 | 2,006,574,707 | 17 | 20.4% | 52.3% | +10 |
| KLM | 1,850,286,108 | 17 | 1,863,509,317 | 17 | 1,870,175,205 | 18 | 0.4% | 1.1% | -1 |
| Qantas Airways | 1,896,273,618 | 16 | 1,929,095,763 | 16 | 1,833,146,749 | 19 | -5.0% | -3.3% | -3 |
| Korean Air Lines | 1,756,322,565 | 19 | 1,748,858,381 | 19 | 1,741,101,566 | 20 | -0.4% | -0.9% | -1 |
| Qatar Airways | 1,508,264,385 | 23 | 1,565,421,201 | 22 | 1,719,726,145 | 21 | 9.9% | 14.0% | +2 |
| easyJet | 1,416,411,155 | 26 | 1,472,242,060 | 26 | 1,669,888,075 | 22 | 13.4% | 17.9% | +4 |
| All Nippon Airways | 1,692,252,964 | 20 | 1,369,530,597 | 20 | 1,625,489,982 | 23 | 18.7% | -3.9% | -3 |
| Thai Airways | 1,500,229,220 | 23 | 1,560,646,594 | 23 | 1,564,880,751 | 24 | 0.3% | 4.3% | -1 |
| TAM | 1,428,600,698 | 25 | 1,467,480,423 | 25 | 1,429,608,088 | 25 | -2.6% | 0.1% | - |
| GRAND TOTAL | 70,805,796,320 | 70,233,419,671 | 71,492,473,557 | 1.8% | 1.0% |
Southwest still the biggest LCC
Southwest Airlines remains the world's biggest LCC, despite a reduction in capacity this summer. The Top 5 LCCs remains unchanged, but big moves have occurred further down the list. India's IndiGo continues to soar up the rankings (its capacity has more than doubled over the past two years, according to Innovata), while Frontier continues its move in the other direction (its capacity is down almost 10% over Aug-2010, according to Innovata).
Innovata's top 25 LCCs worldwide by capacity (ASKs per week): Aug-2010 vs Aug-2011 vs Aug-2012*
| Airline | Aug-10 | Aug-11 | Ranking Aug-11 | Aug-12 | Ranking Aug-12 | % Change Aug-12 vs Aug-11 | % Change Aug-12 vs Aug-10 | Change in Ranking Aug-12 vs Aug-11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Airlines | 3,203,873,890 | 3,427,935,137 | 1 | 3,263,059,323 | 1 | -4.8% | 1.8% | - |
| Ryanair | 2,293,470,161 | 2,566,164,727 | 2 | 2,777,322,555 | 2 | 8.2% | 21.1% | - |
| easyJet | 1,416,411,155 | 1,472,242,060 | 3 | 1,669,888,075 | 3 | 13.4% | 17.9% | - |
| JetBlue Airways | 1,162,519,938 | 1,310,685,159 | 4 | 1,378,439,185 | 4 | 5.2% | 18.6% | - |
| Gol | 908,891,466 | 953,587,455 | 5 | 861,903,276 | 5 | -9.6% | -5.2% | - |
| WestJet | 635,003,183 | 676,880,084 | 7 | 694,744,051 | 6 | 2.6% | 9.4% | +1 |
| Jetstar Airways | 543,667,800 | 664,219,245 | 8 | 681,563,443 | 7 | 2.6% | 25.4% | +1 |
| Lion Airlines | n/a | 369,065,248 | 14 | 632,053,814 | 8 | 71.3% | n/a | +6 |
| AirTran Airways | 828,525,162 | 857,978,887 | 6 | 624,639,481 | 9 | -27.2% | -24.6% | -3 |
| Norwegian Air Shuttle | 403,710,335 | 489,334,484 | 10 | 581,026,749 | 10 | 18.7% | 43.9% | - |
| AirAsia Berhad | 431,440,954 | 458,817,923 | 11 | 526,606,679 | 11 | 14.8% | 22.1% | - |
| Condor | 499,573,562 | 545,758,431 | 9 | 502,719,888 | 12 | -7.9% | 0.6% | -3 |
| Vueling Airlines | 333,146,954 | 380,827,439 | 13 | 485,337,675 | 13 | 27.4% | 45.7% | - |
| Indigo | 221,498,328 | 312,422,530 | 20 | 472,456,148 | 14 | 51.2% | 113.3% | +6 |
| Virgin America | 245,916,936 | 327,528,403 | 18 | 432,828,176 | 15 | 32.1% | 76.0% | +3 |
| Wizz Air | 323,664,506 | 361,922,797 | 15 | 404,522,841 | 16 | 11.8% | 25.0% | -1 |
| Monarch Airlines | 247,894,453 | 330,144,353 | 17 | 380,884,114 | 17 | 15.4% | 53.6% | - |
| Spirit Airlines | 276,064,815 | 320,298,743 | 19 | 369,105,427 | 18 | 15.2% | 33.7% | +1 |
| Pegasus Airlines | n/a | 333,447,550 | 16 | 362,194,504 | 19 | 8.6% | n/a | -3 |
| Frontier Airlines | 398,563,688 | 414,945,722 | 12 | 360,689,921 | 20 | -13.1% | -9.5% | -8 |
| Volaris | 198,754,917 | 270,225,096 | 22 | 331,399,303 | 21 | 22.6% | 66.7% | +1 |
| TUIfly | 266,018,123 | 301,445,555 | 21 | 316,940,076 | 22 | 5.1% | 19.1% | -1 |
| Jet2.com | 216,204,854 | 265,225,241 | 23 | 312,101,855 | 23 | 17.7% | 44.4% | - |
| SpiceJet | n/a | 253,450,287 | 24 | 283,540,277 | 24 | 11.9% | n/a | - |
| Cebu Pacific | n/a | 231,829,196 | 25 | 258,948,889 | 25 | 11.7% | n/a | - |
| GRAND TOTAL | 17,896,381,754 | 18,964,915,725 | 6.0% |
Capacity restraint this summer
Overall, the world's airlines are adding capacity cautiously, reflecting weak global economic conditions. According to Innovata, overall seating capacity is up approximately 3% year-on-year, with the number of flights rising just 1% and ASKs rising about 3%.
Worldwide capacity: Aug-2011 vs Aug-2012*
| Aug-2011 | Aug-2012 | % Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grand Total Flights per Week | 617,591 | 625,218 | 1.2% |
| Grand Total Seats per Week | 79,018,021 | 81,685,205 | 3.4% |
| Grand Total ASKs per Week | 138,790,706,779 | 142,662,400,603 | 2.8% |
Alliances strike back
Members of the world's global alliances are expanding capacity ahead of the global average, allowing the groupings to claw back share from the LCCs and unaligned carriers. According to Innovata, LCCs currently have a 23% share of global capacity (seats).
LCC vs Unaligned vs Alliances capacity and capacity shares (% of flights, seats and ASKs): Aug-2011 vs Aug-2012*
| % of Totals | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alliance | Aug-11 | Aug-12 | % Change | Aug-11 | Aug-12 | Variance | |
| oneworld | Flights per Week | 57,522 | 63,027 | 9.6% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 0.8% |
| Seats per Week | 8,083,471 | 9,022,204 | 11.6% | 10.2% | 11.0% | 0.8% | |
| ASKs per Week | 18,575,099,110 | 19,610,196,276 | 5.6% | 13.4% | 13.7% | 0.4% | |
| SkyTeam Alliance | Flights per Week | 96,654 | 100,040 | 3.5% | 15.7% | 16.0% | 0.4% |
| Seats per Week | 12,659,507 | 13,644,764 | 7.8% | 16.0% | 16.7% | 0.7% | |
| ASKs per Week | 24,023,313,642 | 25,973,580,841 | 8.1% | 17.3% | 18.2% | 0.9% | |
| Star Alliance | Flights per Week | 149,896 | 153,467 | 2.4% | 24.3% | 24.5% | 0.3% |
| Seats per Week | 18,259,377 | 19,018,275 | 4.2% | 23.1% | 23.3% | 0.2% | |
| ASKs per Week | 34,963,372,352 | 37,087,790,274 | 6.1% | 25.2% | 26.0% | 0.8% | |
| Low Cost Carriers | Flights per Week | 124,265 | 123,363 | -0.7% | 20.1% | 19.7% | -0.4% |
| Seats per Week | 18,484,727 | 18,759,664 | 1.5% | 23.4% | 23.0% | -0.4% | |
| ASKs per Week | 23,339,436,056 | 22,970,021,707 | -1.6% | 16.8% | 16.1% | -0.7% | |
| Un-Aligned Carriers | Flights per Week | 189,254 | 185,321 | -2.1% | 30.6% | 29.6% | -1.0% |
| Seats per Week | 21,530,939 | 21,240,298 | -1.3% | 27.2% | 26.0% | -1.2% | |
| ASKs per Week | 37,889,485,620 | 37,020,811,504 | -2.3% | 27.3% | 25.9% | -1.3% | |