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Ryanair looks bullish, but steep yield decline a concern

4-Feb-2009

Ryanair reported (02-Feb-09) a “disappointing” but expected 3Q09 (three months to 31-Dec-08) net loss of EUR101.5 million, against a profit of EUR47.2 million for the same quarter in 2007. [2596 words]

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Subheadings:

  • Net and operating profits slip noticeably in 3Q09
  • Revenue growth fails to keep up with passenger growth
  • Ancillary revenue growth faster than traffic growth rate
  • Unit costs excluding fuel continue to fall
  • Locks in more fuel hedges
  • Ups FY09 forecasts; Expects profit of EUR50-80 million; but loss in 4Q09 expected
  • The strategy proposition
  • Looking to the long term
  • Sees Italy overtaking UK as dominant market
  • Going long-haul?

Graphs and data:

  • Ryanair financial highlights for three months ended 31-Dec-08
  • Ryanair profit after tax and net profit margin: FY06 vs 1-3QFY09 (financial year ended 31-Mar)
  • Ryanair quarterly operating margins (%): 1Q05 to 3Q09
  • Ryanair revenue growth, passenger growth and net profit margin: 1QFY09 vs 3QFY09 (financial year ended 31-Mar)
  • Traffic increases stimulated by 9% reduction in average fares; but FY2010 and FY2011 traffic forecasts downgraded
  • Ryanair passenger numbers and passenger load factor: FY06 vs 1-3QFY09 (financial year ended 31-Mar)
  • Evolution of Ryanair's passenger growth forecast (4Q08 to 3Q09 forecasts): FY07 to FY12F
  • Evolution of Ryanair's fleet forecast (4Q08 to 3Q09 forecasts): FY07 to FY12F
  • Ryanair ancillary revenue as a portion of total revenue: 1Q05 to 3Q09
  • Ryanair fuel expenses as a portion of total operating expenses: 1Q05 to 3Q09
  • Ryanair operating costs breakdown: 3QFY08 vs 3QFY09 (financial year ended 31-Mar)
  • Ryanair fuel hedges: as at Dec-08
  • Ryanair's European bases: 2008
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