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Oil markets looking for direction

24-Apr-2009

Oil markets have essentially gone sideways since the middle of March, searching for the next queue on the global economy. Opec's moves to talk up oil markets, predicting higher demand for crude this Northern Summer, have largely failed. Opec oil ministers next meet on 28-May-09.

More gloomy economic forecasts from the IMF and disclosure of further bad debts by some of the world's largest banks have pulled markets lower. The reality is, no-one knows if we have reached the bottom of the cycle yet.

Underlying crude prices (WTI) eased a further 5.8% in the week to 21-Apr-09 and jet fuel prices have also fallen, but not as much, including New York (-4.7%), the US Gulf Coast (-4.3%), Los Angeles (-4.9%), Amsterdam (-2.4%) and Singapore (-3.8%).

Jet fuel prices are down more than crude over the past 12 months, with refining margins for jet fuel appearing to narrow.

Daily jet fuel prices (kerosene, cents per gallon) at New York, US Gulf Coast, Los Angeles, Amsterdam, Singapore vs Crude Spot price (WTI, USD per barrel): 14-Apr-09 to 21-Apr-09

 

14-Apr-09

15-Apr-09

16-Apr-09

17-Apr-09

20-Apr-09

21-Apr-09

one week
Change

12 month
Change

New York Harbor

143.74

144.6

144.36

146.35

136.2

136.94

-4.7%

-63.4%

U.S. Gulf Coast

139.99

141.1

142.11

142.6

133.2

133.94

-4.3%

-61.9%

Los Angeles

144.49

145.1

146.11

146.73

136.7

137.35

-4.9%

-60.8%

Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp

144.05

147.83

147.37

148.28

139.22

140.65

-2.4%

-60.8%

Singapore

143.76

145.71

148.67

145.29

142.26

138.33

-3.8%

-59.7%

WTI Spot

49.51

49.26

49.97

50.36

45.82

46.65

-5.8%

-60.3%

Daily jet fuel prices (kerosene, cents per gallon) at New York, US Gulf Coast, Los Angeles, Amsterdam, Singapore: 25-Nov-08 to 21-Apr-09


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