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IATA cuts airline industry 2010 loss forecast by half. Structural shift in premium yields?

12-Mar-2010

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has halved its airline industry loss forecast for 2010 to USD2.8 billion (compared to the USD5.6 billion loss forecast in Dec-2009) and lowered its 2009 loss estimate from a previously forecast USD11 billion to USD9.4 billion. The upgrade is largely driven by a “much stronger” recovery in demand seen by year-end gains that continued into the early months of 2010. [1412 words]

Unlock the following content in this report:

Subheadings:

  • “Two-speed industry”: Europe to generate largest losses in 2010; Latin America and Asia Pacific profitable
  • Improvement as premium travel returns, but concerns of a structural shift in premium yields
  • Revenues “half way to recovery”; remain USD42 billion below the 2008 peak
  • Improving Demand
  • Strong recovery in load factors, due to careful capacity management
  • Key concerns - a raft of fleet deliveries and underutilisation
  • Rising fuel prices a concern – to add USD19 billion to the industry fuel bill in 2010

Graphs and data:

  • Global commercial airline profitability: 1995 to 2010F
  • IATA outlook by region for 2009 and 2010: Previous forecast (Dec-2009) profits (losses) and current forecast (Mar-2010)
  • Average international fares, ex taxes and surcharges: 2005 to 2009
  • Passenger numbers on international markets by seat class
  • Premium passengers and world trade growth: Jan-2006 to Dec-009
  • Revenues on international markets by seat class: 2005 to 2009
  • Air travel (RPKs) and freight volumes (FTKs) on international markets: 2005 to FY2011
  • Seasonally adjusted load factors on international markets: Jan-2006 to Dec-2009
  • Passenger and freight Capacity (seasonally adjusted): Jan-2005 to Dec-2009
  • Scheduled deliveries of new aircraft, jets and turboprops: 2000 to 2010
  • Aircraft utilisation (average hours per day) for narrowbody and widebody fleet: 2005 to 2009
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