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CAPA’s 2012 Aviation Outlook: An uncertain and challenging scene - video

23-Dec-2011

CAPA’s annual Aviation Outlook will be released in early Jan-2012.

Meanwhile, we offer a glimpse into what next year is likely to bring, in two short video presentations.

Main points of the CAPA Global Outlook for 2012 are:

- An uncertain and challenging year
- Europe’s economic problems exported
- Europe’s airlines in consolidation mode
- Potential for rising protectionism in stagnant markets like Europe and the United States
- Likelihood of industrial unrest grows
- Asia and Latin America continue to grow but profitability declines
- Fuel prices remain high – and undermine profitability

Peter Harbison, CAPA Chairman and Liz Pincewski, CAPA Head of Research, summarise the main points of CAPA's outlook for 2012:

CAPA Global Aviation Industry Outlook 2012

Brief summary points by region are:

Asia Pacific

  • Growth will continue in this region in 2012 but at a slower pace than in 2011
  • Asia Pacific airlines have around 350 aircraft scheduled for delivery over the next three years, of which 100 are widebodies, foreshadowing continued growth in this region;
  • China’s Big Three carriers and also some ambitious second-tier carriers are increasingly expanding internationally
  • LCCs expand rapidly

Middle East

  • Continues to expand as well as capture market shared
  • Over 100 aircraft deliveries in 2012 and 2013 with continued growth over next decade driven by long haul growth by Gulf region’s three largest sixth-freedom carriers
  • The recent acquisition of a 29% stake in Air Berlin by Etihad highlights the potential of the region’s airlines to alter the global balance of international airline activity.

Africa

  • Growth rate high, driven off low base. as mineral wealth increases
  • New low cost intra-Africa operations
  • Links to Asia are expanding

Europe

  • A challenging year for European carriers in 2012.
  • Flat or negative GDP growth is having a direct impact on air travel
  • Financial pressures faced by a number of governments in Europe is also triggering asset divestments, creating opportunities for investment in airport infrastructure and government-owned airlines
  • With a number of struggling airlines in the region, further consolidation activity and some market exits are expected.
  • A heightened focus on cost reductions programmes and movement of capacity to low-cost operations where possible will occur, creating the likelihood of industrial unrest
  • In these circumstances market share gains are likely for LCCs.

North America

  • The cautious capacity approach seen among the major US airlines in 2011 will continue into 2012, with flat or nominal growth expected, as the region’s airlines note the benefits that muted capacity growth can have on load factors, yields and profitability
  • Marginal capacity growth is occurring amid consolidation activity and capacity cutbacks by a number of carriers, led by American Airlines' restructuring of  its bankruptcy filing at the end of Nov-2011
  • American Airlines’ capacity reduction alone will likely have as much as a 2-percentage point impact on capacity in the world’s largest domestic air travel market

Latin America

  • Consolidation is also a relevant theme, focused predominantly but not exclusively on the LAN-TAM merger.
  • The market continues to show that growth and profitability can occur simultaneously.

To register to receive your 100 page copy of CAPA’s Aviation Outlook 2012, please email ds@centreforaviation.com

CAPA India Aviation Outlook 2012

Binit Somaia, CAPA Director South India, reviews the key points of the CAPA 2012 India Aviation Outlook

  • India's airlines will lose USD2.5 billion in the FY to Mar-2012
  • Unsustainable pricing, largely due to a failing Air India
  • Government taxes and regulations stifle recovery prospects
  • But India's market will grow to become 3rd largest


CAPA’s India office will also publish its 100-page annual CAPA India Aviation Outlook, including industry forecasts.

For further details and to register to receive a copy, please see: http://centreforaviation.com/analysis/outlook-2012-indias-loss-making-aviation-sector-facing-its-most-critical-phase-in-almost-a-decade-65042


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