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A new phase for oil prices? USD80 per barrel back again

5-Mar-2010

As the US economy continues to recover, oil prices are slowly pushing higher. Better US employment figures, combined with a lower US dollar has seen oil prices increase again this week, but there is still uncertainty lingering over the pace of an economic recovery and a rebound in oil demand.

Consumption is not increasing at levels expected and crude oil prices continue to fluctuate. Overall world oil demand was up just 0.3% over the past four weeks, led by increasing Asian consumption, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Global crude oil stocks are slowly declining. However, US crude oil stocks rose up by another 4.1 million barrels last week, with refineries continuing to increase output, ensuring some supply side downward pressure.

Crude oil suppliers are expected to tighten through 2010 and 2011 with the economic recovery. Barclays Capital has suggested that oil is moving into a “new pricing phase” above USD80 per barrel. Oil contracts have traded above USD80 per barrel 18 times this year, and below USD70 per barrel just one, according to the bank’s analysis.

USD80 per barrel oil back again

Oil prices hovered around the USD80 per barrel mark this week.

WTI spot price: Feb-2009 to Feb-2010

Jet fuel prices (cents per gallon) stayed above USD200 cents on all markets. US Gulf Coast and New York Harbour prices were up 1.4% (in the week to 02-Mar-2010), while Amsterdam prices gained 2.1%. Los Angeles prices gained 1%, while Singapore prices dropped 1.8%.

Daily jet fuel prices (kerosene, cents per gallon) at New York, US Gulf Coast, Los Angeles, Amsterdam, Singapore: Jun-2009 to Mar-2010

Daily jet fuel prices (kerosene, cents per gallon) at New York, US Gulf Coast, Los Angeles, Amsterdam, Singapore vs Crude Spot price (WTI, USD per barrel): 23-Feb-2010 to 02-Mar-2010

 

23-Feb-10

24-Feb-10

25-Feb-10

26-Feb-10

01-Mar-10

02-Mar-10

one week Change

12 month Change

New York Harbor

206.69

208.93

203.11

206.72

208.05

209.49

1.4%

76.9%

U.S. Gulf Coast

204.94

205.68

201.43

205.48

205.62

207.72

1.4%

83.5%

Los Angeles

207.71

208.91

203.18

207.48

206.12

209.72

1.0%

78.9%

Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp

203.12

205.09

200.48

205.54

205.39

207.43

2.1%

78.1%

Singapore

205.71

202.14

202.98

198.57

204.64

202.02

-1.8%

70.0%

WTI Spot*

78.61

79.75

77.99

79.72

78.71

79.62

1.3%

98.7%


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